**Current forecasts from the UK Met Office, ECMWF-influenced models, and other sources indicate a mostly clear, high-pressure regime over southern England for the night of August 22–23, 2026, supporting radiative cooling under light winds and low humidity.** This setup follows the clearance of earlier thundery showers, allowing overnight temperatures to drop more readily than during the unsettled period earlier in the week. Official guidance and ensemble guidance cluster the minimum around 13–14 °C, with some runs (particularly those emphasizing slightly stronger northerly flow or residual moisture) dipping toward 12 °C and drier, calmer scenarios holding near 14 °C. Key scientific variables creating the tight spread include the precise degree of cloud cover (even thin high cloud reduces long-wave radiative loss), boundary-layer wind speeds (calm conditions enhance surface cooling), and the strength of the urban heat-island effect in central London versus outlying stations used for verification. Dew-point values in the 8–11 °C range limit further cooling once saturation is approached, while the lack of significant advection keeps the outcome sensitive to small model differences in timing and intensity of the ridge. With resolution expected within 48 hours, the next Met Office and ECMWF runs will narrow the remaining uncertainty around these thresholds.