Wellington's exposed position in the Cook Strait funnels persistent westerlies from the Roaring Forties, with August climatology favoring frequent low-pressure systems that drive southerly or northwesterly gusts often reaching 90–110 km/h at standard sites like Kelburn or the airport. A mid-month system in 2026 already produced verified peaks near 122 km/h, setting a high baseline, while remaining forecasts through month's end show model spreads of 10–15 km/h around expected maxima near 90–100 km/h amid variable steering patterns. Traders weigh the likelihood of additional intense lows versus the historical rarity of sustained extremes above 104 km/h in late August, creating tight probabilities across the 93 km/h threshold. Official MetService or equivalent station data will determine final resolution based on the single highest verified gust.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRáfaga de viento máxima en la ciudad con más viento del mundo en agosto
104 km/h o más 37%
94 a 103 km/h 36%
93 km/h o menos 0
93 km/h o menos
40%
94 a 103 km/h
36%
104 km/h o más
37%
104 km/h o más 37%
94 a 103 km/h 36%
93 km/h o menos 0
93 km/h o menos
40%
94 a 103 km/h
36%
104 km/h o más
37%
The resolution source for this market is the gust value in the wind group of NZWN's raw METAR/SPECI observations, encoded in knots (for example, "34020G45KT" denotes a 45-knot gust), as archived by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) for station NZWN in network NF__ASOS ("New Zealand ASOS"). Gust speed is converted from knots using 1 kt = 1.852 km/h, rounded half-up to the nearest whole number. Because gusts are reported in whole knots, no observed gust converts to a value on a bracket boundary, so every observation maps to exactly one range.
The month's highest gust can be located via the IEM Data Calendar for NZWN: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?network=NF__ASOS&year=2026&month=8&mode=monthly&station=NZWN. Each calendar day displays that day's peak gust inline; clicking a day's date opens the daily Summary for NF__ASOS, where the Peak Gust column in the NZWN (Wellington) row shows the day's maximum. Ensure station NZWN is selected, as the NF__ASOS network includes other New Zealand stations. Note that the IEM calendar and summary pages display gusts in mph; resolution is based on the knot value in the underlying raw METAR, which IEM archives alongside each parsed observation and which can be used to independently verify any value.
If any observations are missing or unavailable, this market will resolve to the range containing the highest gust reported during the resolution window. Should the IEM archive be unavailable or discontinued, this market will resolve based on the equivalent raw METAR/SPECI observations for NZWN from another credible archive or the original reporting authority.
Mercado abierto: Aug 21, 2026, 12:18 PM ET
The resolution source for this market is the gust value in the wind group of NZWN's raw METAR/SPECI observations, encoded in knots (for example, "34020G45KT" denotes a 45-knot gust), as archived by the Iowa Environmental Mesonet (IEM) for station NZWN in network NF__ASOS ("New Zealand ASOS"). Gust speed is converted from knots using 1 kt = 1.852 km/h, rounded half-up to the nearest whole number. Because gusts are reported in whole knots, no observed gust converts to a value on a bracket boundary, so every observation maps to exactly one range.
The month's highest gust can be located via the IEM Data Calendar for NZWN: https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/sites/hist.phtml?network=NF__ASOS&year=2026&month=8&mode=monthly&station=NZWN. Each calendar day displays that day's peak gust inline; clicking a day's date opens the daily Summary for NF__ASOS, where the Peak Gust column in the NZWN (Wellington) row shows the day's maximum. Ensure station NZWN is selected, as the NF__ASOS network includes other New Zealand stations. Note that the IEM calendar and summary pages display gusts in mph; resolution is based on the knot value in the underlying raw METAR, which IEM archives alongside each parsed observation and which can be used to independently verify any value.
If any observations are missing or unavailable, this market will resolve to the range containing the highest gust reported during the resolution window. Should the IEM archive be unavailable or discontinued, this market will resolve based on the equivalent raw METAR/SPECI observations for NZWN from another credible archive or the original reporting authority.
Wellington's exposed position in the Cook Strait funnels persistent westerlies from the Roaring Forties, with August climatology favoring frequent low-pressure systems that drive southerly or northwesterly gusts often reaching 90–110 km/h at standard sites like Kelburn or the airport. A mid-month system in 2026 already produced verified peaks near 122 km/h, setting a high baseline, while remaining forecasts through month's end show model spreads of 10–15 km/h around expected maxima near 90–100 km/h amid variable steering patterns. Traders weigh the likelihood of additional intense lows versus the historical rarity of sustained extremes above 104 km/h in late August, creating tight probabilities across the 93 km/h threshold. Official MetService or equivalent station data will determine final resolution based on the single highest verified gust.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado

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