Strong northwesterly winds and stable atmospheric conditions are driving trader consensus toward a 12°C minimum in Wellington on August 22. Official and model forecasts from MetService, GFS, and ECMWF consistently indicate overnight lows of 11–12°C, with daytime highs near 13–15°C and limited radiative cooling due to cloud cover and brisk flow. Historical August climatology supports minima around 8–10°C, yet current guidance shows milder maritime air dominating. The 95.5% implied probability for 12°C reflects this tight model agreement just 24 hours before resolution. A sharper-than-expected cold front or clearer skies promoting stronger overnight cooling could push readings to 10°C or below, though such shifts appear unlikely given the stable pattern.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Wellington el 22 de agosto?
¿Temperatura más baja en Wellington el 22 de agosto?
8°C 45%
7°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
22 ago 2026
7°C or below
1%
8°C
45%
9°C
-
10°C
33%
11°C
33%
12°C
47%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C or higher
<1%
8°C 45%
7°C or below <1%
13°C <1%
14°C <1%
NUEVO
NUEVO
22 ago 2026
7°C or below
$302 Vol.
1%
8°C
$111 Vol.
45%
9°C
$57 Vol.
-
10°C
$104 Vol.
33%
11°C
$117 Vol.
33%
12°C
$189 Vol.
47%
13°C
$231 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$794 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$676 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$148 Vol.
<1%
17°C or higher
$178 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong northwesterly winds and stable atmospheric conditions are driving trader consensus toward a 12°C minimum in Wellington on August 22. Official and model forecasts from MetService, GFS, and ECMWF consistently indicate overnight lows of 11–12°C, with daytime highs near 13–15°C and limited radiative cooling due to cloud cover and brisk flow. Historical August climatology supports minima around 8–10°C, yet current guidance shows milder maritime air dominating. The 95.5% implied probability for 12°C reflects this tight model agreement just 24 hours before resolution. A sharper-than-expected cold front or clearer skies promoting stronger overnight cooling could push readings to 10°C or below, though such shifts appear unlikely given the stable pattern.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Aug 20, 2026, 1:31 PM ET
Volumen
$2,905Fecha de finalización
22 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 20, 2026, 1:31 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Strong northwesterly winds and stable atmospheric conditions are driving trader consensus toward a 12°C minimum in Wellington on August 22. Official and model forecasts from MetService, GFS, and ECMWF consistently indicate overnight lows of 11–12°C, with daytime highs near 13–15°C and limited radiative cooling due to cloud cover and brisk flow. Historical August climatology supports minima around 8–10°C, yet current guidance shows milder maritime air dominating. The 95.5% implied probability for 12°C reflects this tight model agreement just 24 hours before resolution. A sharper-than-expected cold front or clearer skies promoting stronger overnight cooling could push readings to 10°C or below, though such shifts appear unlikely given the stable pattern.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 22 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$2,905Fecha de finalización
22 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 20, 2026, 1:31 PM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strong northwesterly winds and stable atmospheric conditions are driving trader consensus toward a 12°C minimum in Wellington on August 22. Official and model forecasts from MetService, GFS, and ECMWF consistently indicate overnight lows of 11–12°C, with daytime highs near 13–15°C and limited radiative cooling due to cloud cover and brisk flow. Historical August climatology supports minima around 8–10°C, yet current guidance shows milder maritime air dominating. The 95.5% implied probability for 12°C reflects this tight model agreement just 24 hours before resolution. A sharper-than-expected cold front or clearer skies promoting stronger overnight cooling could push readings to 10°C or below, though such shifts appear unlikely given the stable pattern.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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