Current forecasts from meteorological models indicate typical early July conditions for London, with overnight radiative cooling under variable high pressure likely producing minimum temperatures clustered around 15–17°C. Trader sentiment reflects this narrow range, as ensemble predictions show modest uncertainty driven by differences in expected cloud cover, boundary-layer winds, and residual moisture from Atlantic flow—factors that can shift the exact low by 1–2°C. The urban heat island effect and July climatology (historical nighttime averages near 14–16°C) further anchor expectations, while the absence of strong cold-air advection or widespread clear-sky radiative extremes keeps probabilities for sub-14°C or 19°C+ outcomes lower. Updated model runs ahead of July 4 will refine these thresholds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoLowest temperature in London on July 4?
Lowest temperature in London on July 4?
16°C 44%
17°C 29%
15°C 18%
18°C 8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 jul 2026
13°C or below
1%
14°C
1%
15°C
18%
16°C
44%
17°C
29%
18°C
8%
19°C
1%
20°C
1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
16°C 44%
17°C 29%
15°C 18%
18°C 8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 jul 2026
13°C or below
$144 Vol.
1%
14°C
$86 Vol.
1%
15°C
$100 Vol.
18%
16°C
$185 Vol.
44%
17°C
$2,045 Vol.
29%
18°C
$84 Vol.
8%
19°C
$117 Vol.
1%
20°C
$129 Vol.
1%
21°C
$315 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$178 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$198 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from meteorological models indicate typical early July conditions for London, with overnight radiative cooling under variable high pressure likely producing minimum temperatures clustered around 15–17°C. Trader sentiment reflects this narrow range, as ensemble predictions show modest uncertainty driven by differences in expected cloud cover, boundary-layer winds, and residual moisture from Atlantic flow—factors that can shift the exact low by 1–2°C. The urban heat island effect and July climatology (historical nighttime averages near 14–16°C) further anchor expectations, while the absence of strong cold-air advection or widespread clear-sky radiative extremes keeps probabilities for sub-14°C or 19°C+ outcomes lower. Updated model runs ahead of July 4 will refine these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Jul 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$3,583Fecha de finalización
4 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecasts from meteorological models indicate typical early July conditions for London, with overnight radiative cooling under variable high pressure likely producing minimum temperatures clustered around 15–17°C. Trader sentiment reflects this narrow range, as ensemble predictions show modest uncertainty driven by differences in expected cloud cover, boundary-layer winds, and residual moisture from Atlantic flow—factors that can shift the exact low by 1–2°C. The urban heat island effect and July climatology (historical nighttime averages near 14–16°C) further anchor expectations, while the absence of strong cold-air advection or widespread clear-sky radiative extremes keeps probabilities for sub-14°C or 19°C+ outcomes lower. Updated model runs ahead of July 4 will refine these thresholds.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$3,583Fecha de finalización
4 jul 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 2, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecasts from meteorological models indicate typical early July conditions for London, with overnight radiative cooling under variable high pressure likely producing minimum temperatures clustered around 15–17°C. Trader sentiment reflects this narrow range, as ensemble predictions show modest uncertainty driven by differences in expected cloud cover, boundary-layer winds, and residual moisture from Atlantic flow—factors that can shift the exact low by 1–2°C. The urban heat island effect and July climatology (historical nighttime averages near 14–16°C) further anchor expectations, while the absence of strong cold-air advection or widespread clear-sky radiative extremes keeps probabilities for sub-14°C or 19°C+ outcomes lower. Updated model runs ahead of July 4 will refine these thresholds.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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