Recent numerical weather prediction models indicate a frontal system and increased rainfall will moderate overnight temperatures across the Yangtze River Delta on September 2, driving the market's emphasis on 26°C (46%) and 27°C (35.5%) as leading outcomes. Shanghai's early September climatology features average lows near 24°C amid transitioning monsoon influences, with current late-August observations showing persistent high humidity and easterly flows that limit radiative cooling. Official forecasts from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration project minima around 24–25°C under cloudy, wet conditions, though model spread and urban heat island effects introduce uncertainty that traders price into the 25–27°C range. Updated model runs and local station data releases over the next 48 hours will likely refine these implied probabilities before resolution.