Forecast model ensembles show notable spread in overnight minimum temperatures for Shenzhen on September 12, with outputs clustering between 23–26 °C amid scattered thunderstorms and variable cloud cover that modulates radiative cooling. Subtropical humidity and light winds limit diurnal temperature range, while the urban heat island and regional monsoon flow add local variability; official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration currently favors a low near 25–26 °C. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 25 °C and 26 °C because these align with the consensus of recent high-resolution runs, yet the 27.5 % on 21 °C or below captures tail risk from stronger nocturnal clearing or heavier rain. Updated model cycles and real-time surface observations will likely narrow this range before market resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Shenzhen el 12 de septiembre?
¿Temperatura más baja en Shenzhen el 12 de septiembre?
21°C o menos 88%
31°C o más 72%
26°C 48%
23°C 40%
NUEVO
NUEVO
12 sep 2026
21°C o menos
88%
22°C
39%
23°C
40%
24°C
25%
25°C
26%
26°C
35%
27°C
39%
28°C
3%
29°C
15%
30°C
9%
31°C o más
72%
21°C o menos 88%
31°C o más 72%
26°C 48%
23°C 40%
NUEVO
NUEVO
12 sep 2026
21°C o menos
$0 Vol.
88%
22°C
$0 Vol.
39%
23°C
$0 Vol.
40%
24°C
$0 Vol.
25%
25°C
$0 Vol.
26%
26°C
$42 Vol.
35%
27°C
$0 Vol.
39%
28°C
$0 Vol.
3%
29°C
$0 Vol.
15%
30°C
$0 Vol.
9%
31°C o más
$0 Vol.
72%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast model ensembles show notable spread in overnight minimum temperatures for Shenzhen on September 12, with outputs clustering between 23–26 °C amid scattered thunderstorms and variable cloud cover that modulates radiative cooling. Subtropical humidity and light winds limit diurnal temperature range, while the urban heat island and regional monsoon flow add local variability; official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration currently favors a low near 25–26 °C. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 25 °C and 26 °C because these align with the consensus of recent high-resolution runs, yet the 27.5 % on 21 °C or below captures tail risk from stronger nocturnal clearing or heavier rain. Updated model cycles and real-time surface observations will likely narrow this range before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$42Fecha de finalización
12 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast model ensembles show notable spread in overnight minimum temperatures for Shenzhen on September 12, with outputs clustering between 23–26 °C amid scattered thunderstorms and variable cloud cover that modulates radiative cooling. Subtropical humidity and light winds limit diurnal temperature range, while the urban heat island and regional monsoon flow add local variability; official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration currently favors a low near 25–26 °C. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 25 °C and 26 °C because these align with the consensus of recent high-resolution runs, yet the 27.5 % on 21 °C or below captures tail risk from stronger nocturnal clearing or heavier rain. Updated model cycles and real-time surface observations will likely narrow this range before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgsz
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$42Fecha de finalización
12 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 10, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgszResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast model ensembles show notable spread in overnight minimum temperatures for Shenzhen on September 12, with outputs clustering between 23–26 °C amid scattered thunderstorms and variable cloud cover that modulates radiative cooling. Subtropical humidity and light winds limit diurnal temperature range, while the urban heat island and regional monsoon flow add local variability; official guidance from the China Meteorological Administration currently favors a low near 25–26 °C. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 25 °C and 26 °C because these align with the consensus of recent high-resolution runs, yet the 27.5 % on 21 °C or below captures tail risk from stronger nocturnal clearing or heavier rain. Updated model cycles and real-time surface observations will likely narrow this range before market resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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