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Política·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

icon for Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)
Política·Starmer

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Starmer - UK PM 44%

Petro - Colombia President 38%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.6%

Takaichi - Japan PM 1.1%

Polymarket

$358,172 Vol.

Starmer - UK PM 44%

Petro - Colombia President 38%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President 9.6%

Takaichi - Japan PM 1.1%

Polymarket

$358,172 Vol.

Starmer - UK PM

$19,928 Vol.

44%

Petro - Colombia President

$18,555 Vol.

38%

Díaz-Canel - Cuba President

$11,954 Vol.

10%

Takaichi - Japan PM

$15,974 Vol.

1%

Sheinbaum - Mexico President

$13,491 Vol.

1%

Zelenskyy - Ukraine President

$19,804 Vol.

1%

Netanyahu - Israel PM

$16,698 Vol.

1%

Lecornu - France PM

$15,936 Vol.

1%

None before 2027

$19,047 Vol.

1%

Erdoğan - Türkiye President

$10,499 Vol.

1%

Macron - France President

$12,124 Vol.

<1%

Kim - Supreme Leader of North Korea

$15,186 Vol.

<1%

Trump - USA President

$10,315 Vol.

<1%

Putin - Russia President

$19,663 Vol.

<1%

Abbas - President of Palestine

$12,528 Vol.

<1%

Xi - General Secretary of the CCP

$11,670 Vol.

<1%

Lula da Silva - Brazil President

$15,495 Vol.

<1%

Sánchez - Spanish PM

$17,201 Vol.

<1%

al-Sharaa - Syria President

$11,255 Vol.

<1%

Albanese - Australia PM

$14,338 Vol.

<1%

Newsom - California Governor

$18,184 Vol.

<1%

Milei - Argentina President

$12,324 Vol.

<1%

Merz - German Chancellor

$12,155 Vol.

<1%

Rodríguez - Venezuela Acting President

$13,850 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent UK developments have elevated Keir Starmer's position in trader consensus, with Labour suffering heavy local election losses that triggered over 80 MPs to demand his resignation or exit timetable, multiple ministerial departures, and analyst estimates of an 80% chance he leaves office this year. Gustavo Petro trails closely due to his fixed term ending in August 2026 after the May 31 presidential vote, where he is constitutionally barred from running again despite approval ratings near 47%. The narrow gap between these two reflects uncertainty over the precise timing of Starmer's potential ouster versus Petro's scheduled departure, while lower-probability options for leaders like Díaz-Canel face structural barriers such as limited opposition leverage. Upcoming UK leadership maneuvers or Colombia's election results could widen separation by clarifying which exit occurs first before 2027.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$358,172
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent UK developments have elevated Keir Starmer's position in trader consensus, with Labour suffering heavy local election losses that triggered over 80 MPs to demand his resignation or exit timetable, multiple ministerial departures, and analyst estimates of an 80% chance he leaves office this year. Gustavo Petro trails closely due to his fixed term ending in August 2026 after the May 31 presidential vote, where he is constitutionally barred from running again despite approval ratings near 47%. The narrow gap between these two reflects uncertainty over the precise timing of Starmer's potential ouster versus Petro's scheduled departure, while lower-probability options for leaders like Díaz-Canel face structural barriers such as limited opposition leverage. Upcoming UK leadership maneuvers or Colombia's election results could widen separation by clarifying which exit occurs first before 2027.

This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office.

An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify.

Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count.

Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market.

If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$358,172
Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026
Mercado abierto
Apr 27, 2026, 6:02 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
This market will resolve according to the first listed individual who ceases to occupy their listed office. An announcement of a resignation/removal, or a scheduled departure from office due to the outcome of an election, will not alone qualify. Only permanent removal from office will qualify for resolution. Temporary removals, such as impeachment suspensions (e.g., Yoon Suk Yeol's recent impeachment), temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment, or any similar provisional transfers of power, will not count. Additionally, if an individual continues in a caretaker or interim role (e.g., Gabriel Attal remaining as caretaker Prime Minister of France), they will not be considered to have ceased occupying the office for the purposes of this market. If this criterion has not been met for any of the listed individuals by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. No additional individuals will be added to this market after its creation. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 24 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "Starmer - UK PM" con 45%, seguido de "Petro - Colombia President" con 38%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 45¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 45% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" ha generado $358.2K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Apr 27, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)", explora los 24 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" es "Starmer - UK PM" con 45%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 45% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "Petro - Colombia President" con 38%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.