Traders assign a 99.3 percent probability that Pete Hegseth remains Secretary of Defense through May 31, reflecting his continued leadership of Pentagon operations and recent public appearances. In mid-May 2026 he testified before House and Senate appropriations panels on the administration’s $1.5 trillion defense budget request and ongoing military support related to Iran, while also directing contract reforms and force adjustments in Europe. No statements from the White House, Congress, or Hegseth himself have signaled an imminent departure, and his schedule of official duties shows no disruption. A sudden resignation, major scandal, or health-related development could still shift the outcome before the end of the month, yet current evidence indicates stability in the near term.