Trader consensus for London May precipitation shows closely matched probabilities for the 10-15 mm and 15-20 mm ranges because recent atmospheric conditions have produced intermittent light showers without sustained wet spells. The North Atlantic jet stream's variable positioning, combined with occasional high-pressure blocking, has kept totals near the lower end of historical variability for the first half of the month. Official Met Office observations and ensemble models highlight genuine uncertainty in how Atlantic fronts will evolve over the remaining weeks, with small shifts in steering patterns or sea-surface temperatures capable of pushing accumulations higher or keeping them suppressed. New forecast updates and rainfall measurements will continue to refine these market-implied odds as the month progresses.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoPrecipitation in London in May?
30mm+ 33%
20-25mm 31%
5-10mm 3.1%
<5mm 0
<5mm
32%
5-10mm
3%
10-15mm
41%
15-20mm
43%
20-25mm
25%
25-30mm
42%
30mm+
33%
30mm+ 33%
20-25mm 31%
5-10mm 3.1%
<5mm 0
<5mm
32%
5-10mm
3%
10-15mm
41%
15-20mm
43%
20-25mm
25%
25-30mm
42%
30mm+
33%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for May 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of May 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Apr 28, 2026, 6:20 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Met Office, specifically the figure for May 2026 under "rain mm" at the https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/pub/data/weather/uk/climate/stationdata/heathrowdata.txt link once the Provisional figure for the whole month of May 2026 is released.
If the relevant data is not available by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
The resolution source for this market measures precipitation to 1 decimal place (e.g., 1.5), thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. Any revisions to precipitation recorded after Provisional data is released for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus for London May precipitation shows closely matched probabilities for the 10-15 mm and 15-20 mm ranges because recent atmospheric conditions have produced intermittent light showers without sustained wet spells. The North Atlantic jet stream's variable positioning, combined with occasional high-pressure blocking, has kept totals near the lower end of historical variability for the first half of the month. Official Met Office observations and ensemble models highlight genuine uncertainty in how Atlantic fronts will evolve over the remaining weeks, with small shifts in steering patterns or sea-surface temperatures capable of pushing accumulations higher or keeping them suppressed. New forecast updates and rainfall measurements will continue to refine these market-implied odds as the month progresses.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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