Recent model runs from European and Russian forecasting centers indicate Moscow will likely see a high around 27–30°C on May 19, driven by southerly advection of warmer subtropical air under a strengthening high-pressure ridge and mostly clear skies that enhance daytime solar heating. This setup has already produced above-average readings, with 23°C recorded on May 15, well above the mid-May climatological mean of roughly 19°C. Ensemble guidance shows modest spread in peak temperature tied to small differences in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing, keeping 29°C, 30°C, and 31°C outcomes nearly equal in market pricing. Final Roshydromet observations from Vnukovo and VDNKh stations will determine resolution, with the next high-resolution update expected within 24 hours.