Recent ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and European models point to mostly cloudy conditions with light winds across Paris on May 17, limiting solar heating and keeping the daily maximum temperature centered near 15–16°C. Persistent low-level cloud cover reduces incoming shortwave radiation while modest northwesterly flow prevents significant warm-air advection, aligning trader consensus around these values rather than the May climatological average of 18°C. Brief sun breaks or slightly thicker stratus could easily shift the peak by 1–2°C, which explains the tight clustering across 14°C, 15°C, and 16°C outcomes. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine the exact cloud timing and thickness that ultimately determine the highest reading.