The closely matched market odds between 20°C and 21°C stem from AEMET and ECMWF ensemble forecasts placing Madrid’s daytime maximum near 20.5–21°C today under a building high-pressure ridge. Northerly winds and lingering cloud cover from recent spring showers are suppressing peak solar heating and boundary-layer mixing, keeping readings below the mid-May climatological average of 22°C. The GFS run leans slightly warmer at 21–22°C due to drier soil assumptions, while ECMWF stays cooler from greater moisture retention; these differences hinge on exact timing of diurnal warming and official Madrid-Barajas observations. Traders appear to weigh the model spread against historical May variability, with afternoon AEMET updates likely to refine resolution criteria.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Madrid on May 16?
Highest temperature in Madrid on May 16?
20°C 37%
21°C 33%
22°C 18%
19°C 9%
$30,034 Vol.
$30,034 Vol.
16 may 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
2%
19°C
9%
20°C
37%
21°C
33%
22°C
18%
23°C
4%
24°C
1%
25°C or higher
<1%
20°C 37%
21°C 33%
22°C 18%
19°C 9%
$30,034 Vol.
$30,034 Vol.
16 may 2026
15°C or below
$3,259 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$3,501 Vol.
1%
17°C
$5,538 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$3,739 Vol.
2%
19°C
$2,025 Vol.
9%
20°C
$2,060 Vol.
37%
21°C
$2,827 Vol.
33%
22°C
$1,686 Vol.
18%
23°C
$1,671 Vol.
4%
24°C
$1,831 Vol.
1%
25°C or higher
$1,913 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The closely matched market odds between 20°C and 21°C stem from AEMET and ECMWF ensemble forecasts placing Madrid’s daytime maximum near 20.5–21°C today under a building high-pressure ridge. Northerly winds and lingering cloud cover from recent spring showers are suppressing peak solar heating and boundary-layer mixing, keeping readings below the mid-May climatological average of 22°C. The GFS run leans slightly warmer at 21–22°C due to drier soil assumptions, while ECMWF stays cooler from greater moisture retention; these differences hinge on exact timing of diurnal warming and official Madrid-Barajas observations. Traders appear to weigh the model spread against historical May variability, with afternoon AEMET updates likely to refine resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ET
Volumen
$30,034Fecha de finalización
16 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The closely matched market odds between 20°C and 21°C stem from AEMET and ECMWF ensemble forecasts placing Madrid’s daytime maximum near 20.5–21°C today under a building high-pressure ridge. Northerly winds and lingering cloud cover from recent spring showers are suppressing peak solar heating and boundary-layer mixing, keeping readings below the mid-May climatological average of 22°C. The GFS run leans slightly warmer at 21–22°C due to drier soil assumptions, while ECMWF stays cooler from greater moisture retention; these differences hinge on exact timing of diurnal warming and official Madrid-Barajas observations. Traders appear to weigh the model spread against historical May variability, with afternoon AEMET updates likely to refine resolution criteria.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$30,034Fecha de finalización
16 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 14, 2026, 12:07 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched market odds between 20°C and 21°C stem from AEMET and ECMWF ensemble forecasts placing Madrid’s daytime maximum near 20.5–21°C today under a building high-pressure ridge. Northerly winds and lingering cloud cover from recent spring showers are suppressing peak solar heating and boundary-layer mixing, keeping readings below the mid-May climatological average of 22°C. The GFS run leans slightly warmer at 21–22°C due to drier soil assumptions, while ECMWF stays cooler from greater moisture retention; these differences hinge on exact timing of diurnal warming and official Madrid-Barajas observations. Traders appear to weigh the model spread against historical May variability, with afternoon AEMET updates likely to refine resolution criteria.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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