Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight uncertainty in National Weather Service and ensemble model forecasts for New York City's high temperature on May 16, with GFS and ECMWF runs clustering implied probabilities around 72-77°F amid a weak high-pressure ridge building over the Northeast. Recent showers through May 14 have cooled surface conditions (current readings near 67°F with light rain), but models anticipate partial clearing and southerly flow allowing diurnal heating to push highs into the low-to-mid 70s, near the mid-May climatological normal of 71°F. Differentiating factors include lingering cloud cover from an approaching shortwave trough, boundary-layer mixing, and wind speeds—slight variations could shift the peak by 2-3°F. Watch for 00Z/12Z model updates and NWS forecast refinements by May 15 morning, as these often resolve such fine-scale discrepancies.