The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 21°C, 22°C, and 23°C or higher stems from ensemble forecast models showing Moscow’s May 16 maximum temperature hovering near the 21–23°C range, with small differences in predicted cloud cover and wind speed determining the exact peak. Daytime solar heating under variable high pressure is expected to drive temperatures upward from overnight lows near 7°C, but scattered clouds or a modest increase in northerly flow could cap readings just below 23°C. Official data from stations such as VDNKh will capture the diurnal maximum once fully reported, and any late-day model adjustments from the Russian meteorological service could still shift the final outcome within the current narrow probability band.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Moscow on May 16?
Highest temperature in Moscow on May 16?
21°C 37%
22°C 34.4%
23°C or higher 27.9%
20°C 9.8%
$34,037 Vol.
$34,037 Vol.
16 may 2026
19°C
<1%
20°C
10%
21°C
37%
22°C
34%
23°C or higher
28%
21°C 37%
22°C 34.4%
23°C or higher 27.9%
20°C 9.8%
$34,037 Vol.
$34,037 Vol.
16 may 2026
19°C
$13,470 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$1,634 Vol.
10%
21°C
$1,960 Vol.
37%
22°C
$1,489 Vol.
34%
23°C or higher
$3,591 Vol.
28%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 21°C, 22°C, and 23°C or higher stems from ensemble forecast models showing Moscow’s May 16 maximum temperature hovering near the 21–23°C range, with small differences in predicted cloud cover and wind speed determining the exact peak. Daytime solar heating under variable high pressure is expected to drive temperatures upward from overnight lows near 7°C, but scattered clouds or a modest increase in northerly flow could cap readings just below 23°C. Official data from stations such as VDNKh will capture the diurnal maximum once fully reported, and any late-day model adjustments from the Russian meteorological service could still shift the final outcome within the current narrow probability band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 14, 2026, 12:27 AM ET
Volumen
$34,037Fecha de finalización
16 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 14, 2026, 12:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 21°C, 22°C, and 23°C or higher stems from ensemble forecast models showing Moscow’s May 16 maximum temperature hovering near the 21–23°C range, with small differences in predicted cloud cover and wind speed determining the exact peak. Daytime solar heating under variable high pressure is expected to drive temperatures upward from overnight lows near 7°C, but scattered clouds or a modest increase in northerly flow could cap readings just below 23°C. Official data from stations such as VDNKh will capture the diurnal maximum once fully reported, and any late-day model adjustments from the Russian meteorological service could still shift the final outcome within the current narrow probability band.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$34,037Fecha de finalización
16 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 14, 2026, 12:27 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 21°C, 22°C, and 23°C or higher stems from ensemble forecast models showing Moscow’s May 16 maximum temperature hovering near the 21–23°C range, with small differences in predicted cloud cover and wind speed determining the exact peak. Daytime solar heating under variable high pressure is expected to drive temperatures upward from overnight lows near 7°C, but scattered clouds or a modest increase in northerly flow could cap readings just below 23°C. Official data from stations such as VDNKh will capture the diurnal maximum once fully reported, and any late-day model adjustments from the Russian meteorological service could still shift the final outcome within the current narrow probability band.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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