Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 14°C and 15°C as the highest temperature in Warsaw on May 16, reflecting ensemble forecast uncertainty from ECMWF and GFS models amid a low-pressure trough bringing overcast skies, showers, and cool northerly flow. Recent 48-hour runs show means near 14.5°C, with persistent stratocumulus cloud cover limiting solar insolation and capping diurnal highs below seasonal norms of 19°C; differentiation hinges on mesoscale variations in afternoon shower timing or brief clearings that could add 1°C. IMGW synoptic outlooks align at 15°C maxima under moderate rain risk, while sites like timeanddate peg 14°C with 0.34 inches precip. New model updates every 6-12 hours and IMGW briefings will refine this ahead of resolution via official airport observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 16?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 16?
15°C 37%
14°C 35%
16°C 17%
13°C 8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 may 2026
12°C or below
5%
13°C
8%
14°C
35%
15°C
37%
16°C
17%
17°C
2%
18°C
1%
19°C
1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C or higher
<1%
15°C 37%
14°C 35%
16°C 17%
13°C 8%
NUEVO
NUEVO
16 may 2026
12°C or below
$1,190 Vol.
5%
13°C
$995 Vol.
8%
14°C
$459 Vol.
35%
15°C
$841 Vol.
37%
16°C
$828 Vol.
17%
17°C
$280 Vol.
2%
18°C
$455 Vol.
1%
19°C
$302 Vol.
1%
20°C
$464 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$572 Vol.
<1%
22°C or higher
$852 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 14°C and 15°C as the highest temperature in Warsaw on May 16, reflecting ensemble forecast uncertainty from ECMWF and GFS models amid a low-pressure trough bringing overcast skies, showers, and cool northerly flow. Recent 48-hour runs show means near 14.5°C, with persistent stratocumulus cloud cover limiting solar insolation and capping diurnal highs below seasonal norms of 19°C; differentiation hinges on mesoscale variations in afternoon shower timing or brief clearings that could add 1°C. IMGW synoptic outlooks align at 15°C maxima under moderate rain risk, while sites like timeanddate peg 14°C with 0.34 inches precip. New model updates every 6-12 hours and IMGW briefings will refine this ahead of resolution via official airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volumen
$7,238Fecha de finalización
16 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 14°C and 15°C as the highest temperature in Warsaw on May 16, reflecting ensemble forecast uncertainty from ECMWF and GFS models amid a low-pressure trough bringing overcast skies, showers, and cool northerly flow. Recent 48-hour runs show means near 14.5°C, with persistent stratocumulus cloud cover limiting solar insolation and capping diurnal highs below seasonal norms of 19°C; differentiation hinges on mesoscale variations in afternoon shower timing or brief clearings that could add 1°C. IMGW synoptic outlooks align at 15°C maxima under moderate rain risk, while sites like timeanddate peg 14°C with 0.34 inches precip. New model updates every 6-12 hours and IMGW briefings will refine this ahead of resolution via official airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$7,238Fecha de finalización
16 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 14, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket closely splits between 14°C and 15°C as the highest temperature in Warsaw on May 16, reflecting ensemble forecast uncertainty from ECMWF and GFS models amid a low-pressure trough bringing overcast skies, showers, and cool northerly flow. Recent 48-hour runs show means near 14.5°C, with persistent stratocumulus cloud cover limiting solar insolation and capping diurnal highs below seasonal norms of 19°C; differentiation hinges on mesoscale variations in afternoon shower timing or brief clearings that could add 1°C. IMGW synoptic outlooks align at 15°C maxima under moderate rain risk, while sites like timeanddate peg 14°C with 0.34 inches precip. New model updates every 6-12 hours and IMGW briefings will refine this ahead of resolution via official airport observations.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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