Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 41.5% probability for Warsaw's highest temperature reaching 20°C today, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble means forecasting daytime peaks of 19–20°C under mild high-pressure ridging across Central Europe. IMGW guidance aligns closely, projecting a maximum near 20°C following recent cooler nights with lows around 8°C, consistent with mid-May climatological averages of 19°C. Light southerly winds and partly cloudy skies favor moderate warming during afternoon peak heating, though low model spread in the past 48-hour runs highlights limited upside beyond 21°C absent reduced stratocumulus. Isolated showers pose a capping risk, with real-time observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport—sourced for resolution—expected to sharpen probabilities through the day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Warsaw on May 15?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on May 15?
20°C 41%
19°C 29%
21°C 28%
18°C 8.3%
$35,459 Vol.
$35,459 Vol.
15 may 2026
15°C or below
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
8%
19°C
29%
20°C
41%
21°C
22%
22°C
2%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C or higher
<1%
20°C 41%
19°C 29%
21°C 28%
18°C 8.3%
$35,459 Vol.
$35,459 Vol.
15 may 2026
15°C or below
$2,918 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$1,379 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$3,190 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$3,769 Vol.
8%
19°C
$5,015 Vol.
29%
20°C
$2,451 Vol.
41%
21°C
$3,790 Vol.
22%
22°C
$3,418 Vol.
2%
23°C
$6,167 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$1,991 Vol.
<1%
25°C or higher
$1,381 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 41.5% probability for Warsaw's highest temperature reaching 20°C today, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble means forecasting daytime peaks of 19–20°C under mild high-pressure ridging across Central Europe. IMGW guidance aligns closely, projecting a maximum near 20°C following recent cooler nights with lows around 8°C, consistent with mid-May climatological averages of 19°C. Light southerly winds and partly cloudy skies favor moderate warming during afternoon peak heating, though low model spread in the past 48-hour runs highlights limited upside beyond 21°C absent reduced stratocumulus. Isolated showers pose a capping risk, with real-time observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport—sourced for resolution—expected to sharpen probabilities through the day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 13, 2026, 12:12 AM ET
Volumen
$35,459Fecha de finalización
15 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 12:12 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 41.5% probability for Warsaw's highest temperature reaching 20°C today, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble means forecasting daytime peaks of 19–20°C under mild high-pressure ridging across Central Europe. IMGW guidance aligns closely, projecting a maximum near 20°C following recent cooler nights with lows around 8°C, consistent with mid-May climatological averages of 19°C. Light southerly winds and partly cloudy skies favor moderate warming during afternoon peak heating, though low model spread in the past 48-hour runs highlights limited upside beyond 21°C absent reduced stratocumulus. Isolated showers pose a capping risk, with real-time observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport—sourced for resolution—expected to sharpen probabilities through the day.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$35,459Fecha de finalización
15 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 12:12 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a 41.5% probability for Warsaw's highest temperature reaching 20°C today, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble means forecasting daytime peaks of 19–20°C under mild high-pressure ridging across Central Europe. IMGW guidance aligns closely, projecting a maximum near 20°C following recent cooler nights with lows around 8°C, consistent with mid-May climatological averages of 19°C. Light southerly winds and partly cloudy skies favor moderate warming during afternoon peak heating, though low model spread in the past 48-hour runs highlights limited upside beyond 21°C absent reduced stratocumulus. Isolated showers pose a capping risk, with real-time observations from Warsaw Chopin Airport—sourced for resolution—expected to sharpen probabilities through the day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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