Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 22°C on May 15, 2026, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observations at Otemachi station showing a midday peak of 22°C amid persistent partly cloudy skies that suppressed solar insolation and limited further warming. Mid-May climatology typically sees highs around 23-24°C under clearer conditions, but today's moderate northerly winds and cloud cover—evident in latest short-range mesoscale model outputs—aligned with this cooler outcome, shifting odds decisively in the past 24 hours from more dispersed pricing. With sunset near 18:40 JST and evening cooling underway, realistic challenges like sudden clearing for a late spike to 23°C appear improbable given model consensus and historical intraday patterns. Final JMA daily summary expected post-midnight.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Tokyo on May 15?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on May 15?
22°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$121,477 Vol.
$121,477 Vol.
15 may 2026
17°C or below
No
18°C
No
19°C
No
20°C
No
21°C
No
22°C
Yes
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
No
26°C
No
27°C or higher
No
22°C 100.0%
17°C or below <1%
18°C <1%
19°C <1%
$121,477 Vol.
$121,477 Vol.
15 may 2026
17°C or below
$5,324 Vol.
No
18°C
$2,594 Vol.
No
19°C
$2,374 Vol.
No
20°C
$8,791 Vol.
No
21°C
$23,213 Vol.
No
22°C
$23,654 Vol.
Yes
23°C
$14,011 Vol.
No
24°C
$15,782 Vol.
No
25°C
$9,615 Vol.
No
26°C
$8,900 Vol.
No
27°C or higher
$7,220 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 22°C on May 15, 2026, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observations at Otemachi station showing a midday peak of 22°C amid persistent partly cloudy skies that suppressed solar insolation and limited further warming. Mid-May climatology typically sees highs around 23-24°C under clearer conditions, but today's moderate northerly winds and cloud cover—evident in latest short-range mesoscale model outputs—aligned with this cooler outcome, shifting odds decisively in the past 24 hours from more dispersed pricing. With sunset near 18:40 JST and evening cooling underway, realistic challenges like sudden clearing for a late spike to 23°C appear improbable given model consensus and historical intraday patterns. Final JMA daily summary expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volumen
$121,477Fecha de finalización
15 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 22°C on May 15, 2026, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observations at Otemachi station showing a midday peak of 22°C amid persistent partly cloudy skies that suppressed solar insolation and limited further warming. Mid-May climatology typically sees highs around 23-24°C under clearer conditions, but today's moderate northerly winds and cloud cover—evident in latest short-range mesoscale model outputs—aligned with this cooler outcome, shifting odds decisively in the past 24 hours from more dispersed pricing. With sunset near 18:40 JST and evening cooling underway, realistic challenges like sudden clearing for a late spike to 23°C appear improbable given model consensus and historical intraday patterns. Final JMA daily summary expected post-midnight.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$121,477Fecha de finalización
15 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 12:06 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for Tokyo's highest temperature reaching exactly 22°C on May 15, 2026, driven by Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) observations at Otemachi station showing a midday peak of 22°C amid persistent partly cloudy skies that suppressed solar insolation and limited further warming. Mid-May climatology typically sees highs around 23-24°C under clearer conditions, but today's moderate northerly winds and cloud cover—evident in latest short-range mesoscale model outputs—aligned with this cooler outcome, shifting odds decisively in the past 24 hours from more dispersed pricing. With sunset near 18:40 JST and evening cooling underway, realistic challenges like sudden clearing for a late spike to 23°C appear improbable given model consensus and historical intraday patterns. Final JMA daily summary expected post-midnight.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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