Recent ensemble model runs from the National Weather Service indicate a broad high-pressure ridge over the Northeast will keep overnight conditions mild for New York City on May 19, with minimum temperatures most likely settling in the mid-to-upper 60s. This consensus arises because forecast guidance shows light southerly flow, limited cloud cover after sunset, and no significant frontal passage until after dawn, pushing the 66-67°F and 70-71°F bins to the top of trader probabilities. Remaining spread across adjacent ranges reflects typical model divergence in boundary-layer mixing and exact dew-point advection three days out. Historical May climatology for Central Park places the average minimum near 55°F, so current guidance sits well above normal and supports the observed market clustering. Updated short-range forecasts expected tomorrow morning will further narrow the distribution before resolution.