Trader consensus on Shanghai's May 15 highest temperature splits tightly between 25°C (38.5% implied probability) and 24°C (32.5%), driven by persistent overcast conditions over the past 48 hours that capped May 14's peak at around 24°C despite earlier 28°C forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration. Current hourly guidance from global models like GFS and ECMWF shows a potential afternoon high near 27°C if partial clearing occurs by 2 p.m. local time, but traders discount this amid ongoing low cloud decks, moderate easterly sea breezes moderating coastal temperatures, and limited insolation reducing boundary layer heating. Key differentiator: timing and extent of cloud break-up versus sustained marine layer influence, with final CMA observations at Shanghai Pudong Airport resolving the market tomorrow. Model runs update overnight, potentially shifting odds further.