Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 50% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 19 reaching 24°C or higher, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and ECMWF model ensembles forecasting a persistent high-pressure ridge over the Kanto region, ushering in above-average warmth amid light winds and clear skies. Long-range projections, including those from AccuWeather, indicate overnight lows potentially climbing to 20-21°C, bolstered by urban heat island effects in Tokyo that limit nocturnal cooling, contrasting historical mid-May averages of 15-17°C. Recent days' observed highs near 25-28°C have prompted upward revisions in forecasts, concentrating bets around 19-24°C outcomes while pricing cooler scenarios lower. Inherent model spread persists; JMA's next advisory on May 16 could refine landfall timing for peak heat.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Tokio el 19 de mayo?
¿Temperatura más baja en Tokio el 19 de mayo?
24°C o más 40%
20°C 24%
19°C 24%
21°C 20%
NUEVO
NUEVO
19 may 2026
14°C o menos
1%
15°C
5%
16°C
5%
17°C
14%
18°C
19%
19°C
24%
20°C
24%
21°C
20%
22°C
17%
23°C
6%
24°C o más
40%
24°C o más 40%
20°C 24%
19°C 24%
21°C 20%
NUEVO
NUEVO
19 may 2026
14°C o menos
$5 Vol.
1%
15°C
$0 Vol.
5%
16°C
$0 Vol.
5%
17°C
$0 Vol.
14%
18°C
$0 Vol.
19%
19°C
$0 Vol.
24%
20°C
$0 Vol.
24%
21°C
$0 Vol.
20%
22°C
$0 Vol.
17%
23°C
$0 Vol.
6%
24°C o más
$25 Vol.
40%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 50% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 19 reaching 24°C or higher, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and ECMWF model ensembles forecasting a persistent high-pressure ridge over the Kanto region, ushering in above-average warmth amid light winds and clear skies. Long-range projections, including those from AccuWeather, indicate overnight lows potentially climbing to 20-21°C, bolstered by urban heat island effects in Tokyo that limit nocturnal cooling, contrasting historical mid-May averages of 15-17°C. Recent days' observed highs near 25-28°C have prompted upward revisions in forecasts, concentrating bets around 19-24°C outcomes while pricing cooler scenarios lower. Inherent model spread persists; JMA's next advisory on May 16 could refine landfall timing for peak heat.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$30Fecha de finalización
19 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 50% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 19 reaching 24°C or higher, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and ECMWF model ensembles forecasting a persistent high-pressure ridge over the Kanto region, ushering in above-average warmth amid light winds and clear skies. Long-range projections, including those from AccuWeather, indicate overnight lows potentially climbing to 20-21°C, bolstered by urban heat island effects in Tokyo that limit nocturnal cooling, contrasting historical mid-May averages of 15-17°C. Recent days' observed highs near 25-28°C have prompted upward revisions in forecasts, concentrating bets around 19-24°C outcomes while pricing cooler scenarios lower. Inherent model spread persists; JMA's next advisory on May 16 could refine landfall timing for peak heat.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 19 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$30Fecha de finalización
19 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 15, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 50% implied probability for Tokyo's lowest temperature on May 19 reaching 24°C or higher, driven by the latest Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and ECMWF model ensembles forecasting a persistent high-pressure ridge over the Kanto region, ushering in above-average warmth amid light winds and clear skies. Long-range projections, including those from AccuWeather, indicate overnight lows potentially climbing to 20-21°C, bolstered by urban heat island effects in Tokyo that limit nocturnal cooling, contrasting historical mid-May averages of 15-17°C. Recent days' observed highs near 25-28°C have prompted upward revisions in forecasts, concentrating bets around 19-24°C outcomes while pricing cooler scenarios lower. Inherent model spread persists; JMA's next advisory on May 16 could refine landfall timing for peak heat.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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