Latest forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models like ECMWF and GFS project Shenzhen's May 15 high temperature around 27-29°C, driven by persistent thundery showers and cloudy conditions amid the onset of the region's humid pre-monsoon season, capping peak heating. This aligns with trader consensus favoring 28°C (28%) and 29°C (30%), but 30°C or higher holds a 37% implied probability due to May 13's observed 31°C spike from brief subsidence and urban heat island effects in densely built Shenzhen. Key differentiators include thunderstorm timing—early convection suppresses highs, while delayed onset allows solar insolation to build—and southerly sea breezes moderating humidity-driven heat indices. New model runs expected tonight could refine these uncertainties before resolution via official Bao'an station data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Shenzhen el 15 de mayo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Shenzhen el 15 de mayo?
30°C o más 37%
29°C 31%
28°C 27%
27°C 8%
NUEVO
$14,484 Vol.
NUEVO
$14,484 Vol.
15 may 2026
20°C o menos
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
8%
28°C
27%
29°C
31%
30°C o más
37%
30°C o más 37%
29°C 31%
28°C 27%
27°C 8%
NUEVO
$14,484 Vol.
NUEVO
$14,484 Vol.
15 may 2026
20°C o menos
$2,465 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$2,651 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$1,866 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$1,306 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$611 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$319 Vol.
1%
26°C
$726 Vol.
1%
27°C
$1,358 Vol.
8%
28°C
$468 Vol.
27%
29°C
$823 Vol.
31%
30°C o más
$1,891 Vol.
37%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models like ECMWF and GFS project Shenzhen's May 15 high temperature around 27-29°C, driven by persistent thundery showers and cloudy conditions amid the onset of the region's humid pre-monsoon season, capping peak heating. This aligns with trader consensus favoring 28°C (28%) and 29°C (30%), but 30°C or higher holds a 37% implied probability due to May 13's observed 31°C spike from brief subsidence and urban heat island effects in densely built Shenzhen. Key differentiators include thunderstorm timing—early convection suppresses highs, while delayed onset allows solar insolation to build—and southerly sea breezes moderating humidity-driven heat indices. New model runs expected tonight could refine these uncertainties before resolution via official Bao'an station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 13, 2026, 12:09 AM ET
Volumen
$14,484Fecha de finalización
15 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 12:09 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Latest forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models like ECMWF and GFS project Shenzhen's May 15 high temperature around 27-29°C, driven by persistent thundery showers and cloudy conditions amid the onset of the region's humid pre-monsoon season, capping peak heating. This aligns with trader consensus favoring 28°C (28%) and 29°C (30%), but 30°C or higher holds a 37% implied probability due to May 13's observed 31°C spike from brief subsidence and urban heat island effects in densely built Shenzhen. Key differentiators include thunderstorm timing—early convection suppresses highs, while delayed onset allows solar insolation to build—and southerly sea breezes moderating humidity-driven heat indices. New model runs expected tonight could refine these uncertainties before resolution via official Bao'an station data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$14,484Fecha de finalización
15 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 13, 2026, 12:09 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models like ECMWF and GFS project Shenzhen's May 15 high temperature around 27-29°C, driven by persistent thundery showers and cloudy conditions amid the onset of the region's humid pre-monsoon season, capping peak heating. This aligns with trader consensus favoring 28°C (28%) and 29°C (30%), but 30°C or higher holds a 37% implied probability due to May 13's observed 31°C spike from brief subsidence and urban heat island effects in densely built Shenzhen. Key differentiators include thunderstorm timing—early convection suppresses highs, while delayed onset allows solar insolation to build—and southerly sea breezes moderating humidity-driven heat indices. New model runs expected tonight could refine these uncertainties before resolution via official Bao'an station data.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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