Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a highest temperature around 14-15°C in Warsaw on May 17, with 51.5% odds for 15°C or higher leading due to the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing model means near 15°C amid a cool northerly airflow over Central Europe. This positions 13°C and 14°C outcomes at 21% each, reflecting uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and cloud cover that could cap daytime heating. Slightly below the mid-May climatological average of 18°C, current conditions stem from a blocking high over Scandinavia funneling cooler Arctic air, per recent upper-air analyses. Inherent 2-day forecast uncertainty (±2-3°C) persists; watch IMGW and ECMWF 12Z updates tomorrow for potential shifts ahead of the event window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Varsovia el 17 de mayo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Varsovia el 17 de mayo?
13°C 36%
12°C 28.9%
14°C 20%
15°C or higher 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
17 may 2026
5°C or below
<1%
6°C
<1%
7°C
<1%
8°C
<1%
9°C
1%
10°C
1%
11°C
10%
12°C
29%
13°C
36%
14°C
20%
15°C or higher
11%
13°C 36%
12°C 28.9%
14°C 20%
15°C or higher 11%
NUEVO
NUEVO
17 may 2026
5°C or below
$553 Vol.
<1%
6°C
$574 Vol.
<1%
7°C
$212 Vol.
<1%
8°C
$158 Vol.
<1%
9°C
$159 Vol.
1%
10°C
$145 Vol.
1%
11°C
$329 Vol.
10%
12°C
$350 Vol.
29%
13°C
$266 Vol.
36%
14°C
$295 Vol.
20%
15°C or higher
$529 Vol.
11%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a highest temperature around 14-15°C in Warsaw on May 17, with 51.5% odds for 15°C or higher leading due to the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing model means near 15°C amid a cool northerly airflow over Central Europe. This positions 13°C and 14°C outcomes at 21% each, reflecting uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and cloud cover that could cap daytime heating. Slightly below the mid-May climatological average of 18°C, current conditions stem from a blocking high over Scandinavia funneling cooler Arctic air, per recent upper-air analyses. Inherent 2-day forecast uncertainty (±2-3°C) persists; watch IMGW and ECMWF 12Z updates tomorrow for potential shifts ahead of the event window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volumen
$3,571Fecha de finalización
17 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket implies a highest temperature around 14-15°C in Warsaw on May 17, with 51.5% odds for 15°C or higher leading due to the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing model means near 15°C amid a cool northerly airflow over Central Europe. This positions 13°C and 14°C outcomes at 21% each, reflecting uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and cloud cover that could cap daytime heating. Slightly below the mid-May climatological average of 18°C, current conditions stem from a blocking high over Scandinavia funneling cooler Arctic air, per recent upper-air analyses. Inherent 2-day forecast uncertainty (±2-3°C) persists; watch IMGW and ECMWF 12Z updates tomorrow for potential shifts ahead of the event window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$3,571Fecha de finalización
17 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWATrader consensus on Polymarket implies a highest temperature around 14-15°C in Warsaw on May 17, with 51.5% odds for 15°C or higher leading due to the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts showing model means near 15°C amid a cool northerly airflow over Central Europe. This positions 13°C and 14°C outcomes at 21% each, reflecting uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and cloud cover that could cap daytime heating. Slightly below the mid-May climatological average of 18°C, current conditions stem from a blocking high over Scandinavia funneling cooler Arctic air, per recent upper-air analyses. Inherent 2-day forecast uncertainty (±2-3°C) persists; watch IMGW and ECMWF 12Z updates tomorrow for potential shifts ahead of the event window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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