Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast model clustering for Beijing's May 17 high temperature around 19–21°C, driven by a recent cold frontal passage ending an early-month heat wave that peaked near 33°C on May 14. Latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs indicate northerly winds advecting cooler mid-level air, combined with widespread cloud cover and scattered showers limiting daytime heating, favoring 20°C as the slight leader. Climatological May averages hover near 27°C, but current synoptic patterns—upper-level trough over North China—override seasonal norms. Key uncertainty lies in frontal timing and boundary layer mixing; fresh model outputs from NOAA and CMA expected overnight could refine probabilities before resolution at Beijing Capital International Airport station.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Pekín el 17 de mayo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Pekín el 17 de mayo?
20°C 29%
19°C 24%
21°C 23%
18°C 12.7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
17 may 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
1%
17°C
4%
18°C
13%
19°C
24%
20°C
29%
21°C
23%
22°C
4%
23°C or higher
2%
20°C 29%
19°C 24%
21°C 23%
18°C 12.7%
NUEVO
NUEVO
17 may 2026
13°C or below
$490 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$476 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$395 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$354 Vol.
1%
17°C
$225 Vol.
4%
18°C
$289 Vol.
13%
19°C
$198 Vol.
24%
20°C
$415 Vol.
29%
21°C
$289 Vol.
23%
22°C
$966 Vol.
4%
23°C or higher
$799 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast model clustering for Beijing's May 17 high temperature around 19–21°C, driven by a recent cold frontal passage ending an early-month heat wave that peaked near 33°C on May 14. Latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs indicate northerly winds advecting cooler mid-level air, combined with widespread cloud cover and scattered showers limiting daytime heating, favoring 20°C as the slight leader. Climatological May averages hover near 27°C, but current synoptic patterns—upper-level trough over North China—override seasonal norms. Key uncertainty lies in frontal timing and boundary layer mixing; fresh model outputs from NOAA and CMA expected overnight could refine probabilities before resolution at Beijing Capital International Airport station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ET
Volumen
$4,896Fecha de finalización
17 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast model clustering for Beijing's May 17 high temperature around 19–21°C, driven by a recent cold frontal passage ending an early-month heat wave that peaked near 33°C on May 14. Latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs indicate northerly winds advecting cooler mid-level air, combined with widespread cloud cover and scattered showers limiting daytime heating, favoring 20°C as the slight leader. Climatological May averages hover near 27°C, but current synoptic patterns—upper-level trough over North China—override seasonal norms. Key uncertainty lies in frontal timing and boundary layer mixing; fresh model outputs from NOAA and CMA expected overnight could refine probabilities before resolution at Beijing Capital International Airport station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$4,896Fecha de finalización
17 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 15, 2026, 12:05 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAATrader consensus on Polymarket reflects tight forecast model clustering for Beijing's May 17 high temperature around 19–21°C, driven by a recent cold frontal passage ending an early-month heat wave that peaked near 33°C on May 14. Latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble runs indicate northerly winds advecting cooler mid-level air, combined with widespread cloud cover and scattered showers limiting daytime heating, favoring 20°C as the slight leader. Climatological May averages hover near 27°C, but current synoptic patterns—upper-level trough over North China—override seasonal norms. Key uncertainty lies in frontal timing and boundary layer mixing; fresh model outputs from NOAA and CMA expected overnight could refine probabilities before resolution at Beijing Capital International Airport station.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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