Recent ensemble forecasts from global models reveal substantial uncertainty in Tokyo's minimum temperature on May 21, with projected lows spanning roughly 12–22°C depending on the timing of a weak frontal passage and overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover. Typical May climatology places average lows near 16°C, yet current synoptic patterns show a split between cooler maritime air advection and warmer subtropical ridging, producing the market's near-even odds between sub-11°C and 21°C-plus outcomes. Japan Meteorological Agency updates over the next 48 hours, along with refined high-resolution model runs, will likely narrow this spread as the event window approaches.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Tokio el 21 de mayo?
¿Temperatura más baja en Tokio el 21 de mayo?
11°C o menos 81%
21°C o más 41%
16°C 18%
15°C 18%
NUEVO
NUEVO
21 may 2026
11°C o menos
81%
12°C
12%
13°C
13%
14°C
16%
15°C
18%
16°C
18%
17°C
18%
18°C
18%
19°C
14%
20°C
9%
21°C o más
41%
11°C o menos 81%
21°C o más 41%
16°C 18%
15°C 18%
NUEVO
NUEVO
21 may 2026
11°C o menos
$18 Vol.
81%
12°C
$267 Vol.
12%
13°C
$5 Vol.
13%
14°C
$0 Vol.
16%
15°C
$0 Vol.
18%
16°C
$0 Vol.
18%
17°C
$0 Vol.
18%
18°C
$0 Vol.
18%
19°C
$0 Vol.
14%
20°C
$0 Vol.
9%
21°C o más
$0 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models reveal substantial uncertainty in Tokyo's minimum temperature on May 21, with projected lows spanning roughly 12–22°C depending on the timing of a weak frontal passage and overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover. Typical May climatology places average lows near 16°C, yet current synoptic patterns show a split between cooler maritime air advection and warmer subtropical ridging, producing the market's near-even odds between sub-11°C and 21°C-plus outcomes. Japan Meteorological Agency updates over the next 48 hours, along with refined high-resolution model runs, will likely narrow this spread as the event window approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$18Fecha de finalización
21 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent ensemble forecasts from global models reveal substantial uncertainty in Tokyo's minimum temperature on May 21, with projected lows spanning roughly 12–22°C depending on the timing of a weak frontal passage and overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover. Typical May climatology places average lows near 16°C, yet current synoptic patterns show a split between cooler maritime air advection and warmer subtropical ridging, producing the market's near-even odds between sub-11°C and 21°C-plus outcomes. Japan Meteorological Agency updates over the next 48 hours, along with refined high-resolution model runs, will likely narrow this spread as the event window approaches.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$18Fecha de finalización
21 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTRecent ensemble forecasts from global models reveal substantial uncertainty in Tokyo's minimum temperature on May 21, with projected lows spanning roughly 12–22°C depending on the timing of a weak frontal passage and overnight radiative cooling under variable cloud cover. Typical May climatology places average lows near 16°C, yet current synoptic patterns show a split between cooler maritime air advection and warmer subtropical ridging, producing the market's near-even odds between sub-11°C and 21°C-plus outcomes. Japan Meteorological Agency updates over the next 48 hours, along with refined high-resolution model runs, will likely narrow this spread as the event window approaches.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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