Current forecasts from the National Weather Service and supporting models indicate Seattle's highest temperature on May 16 will most likely reach 54–55 °F at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport, aligning with the market's leading 40 % probability for that bin. Persistent marine-layer influence and moderate onshore flow are suppressing daytime heating, keeping conditions close to seasonal normals rather than the warmer anomalies seen earlier in the month. Ensemble guidance shows limited variability, with only modest afternoon warming possible under partial clearing. Traders appear to have priced in this consensus while leaving room for a 56–57 °F outcome if boundary-layer mixing strengthens. The next National Weather Service update and final hourly observations will resolve the market.