Current National Weather Service ensemble guidance and GFS/ECMWF model runs indicate a strong warm-air advection pattern across the Northeast, with southerly flow and limited cloud cover expected to keep New York City overnight minimums elevated through May 21. This setup positions the 68°F-or-higher bin as the market leader at 41% implied probability, as traders weigh the potential for radiative cooling to be suppressed under high pressure. Historical climatology for late May shows Central Park lows averaging near 55°F, yet recent model consensus has shifted upward, reducing the appeal of cooler bins like 49°F or below (25%). Updated short-range forecasts and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the measurement window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Temperatura más baja en Nueva York el 21 de mayo?
¿Temperatura más baja en Nueva York el 21 de mayo?
68°F o más 41%
49°F o menos 25%
56-57°F 19%
58-59°F 19%
NUEVO
NUEVO
21 may 2026
49°F o menos
25%
50-51°F
5%
52-53°F
5%
54-55°F
17%
56-57°F
19%
58-59°F
19%
60-61°F
19%
62-63°F
18%
64-65°F
14%
66-67°F
5%
68°F o más
41%
68°F o más 41%
49°F o menos 25%
56-57°F 19%
58-59°F 19%
NUEVO
NUEVO
21 may 2026
49°F o menos
$18 Vol.
25%
50-51°F
$0 Vol.
5%
52-53°F
$0 Vol.
5%
54-55°F
$0 Vol.
17%
56-57°F
$0 Vol.
19%
58-59°F
$0 Vol.
19%
60-61°F
$0 Vol.
19%
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
18%
64-65°F
$0 Vol.
14%
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
5%
68°F o más
$10 Vol.
41%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current National Weather Service ensemble guidance and GFS/ECMWF model runs indicate a strong warm-air advection pattern across the Northeast, with southerly flow and limited cloud cover expected to keep New York City overnight minimums elevated through May 21. This setup positions the 68°F-or-higher bin as the market leader at 41% implied probability, as traders weigh the potential for radiative cooling to be suppressed under high pressure. Historical climatology for late May shows Central Park lows averaging near 55°F, yet recent model consensus has shifted upward, reducing the appeal of cooler bins like 49°F or below (25%). Updated short-range forecasts and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the measurement window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volumen
$28Fecha de finalización
21 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Current National Weather Service ensemble guidance and GFS/ECMWF model runs indicate a strong warm-air advection pattern across the Northeast, with southerly flow and limited cloud cover expected to keep New York City overnight minimums elevated through May 21. This setup positions the 68°F-or-higher bin as the market leader at 41% implied probability, as traders weigh the potential for radiative cooling to be suppressed under high pressure. Historical climatology for late May shows Central Park lows averaging near 55°F, yet recent model consensus has shifted upward, reducing the appeal of cooler bins like 49°F or below (25%). Updated short-range forecasts and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the measurement window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 21 May '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$28Fecha de finalización
21 may 2026Mercado abierto
May 17, 2026, 12:30 AM ETFuente de resolución
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGACurrent National Weather Service ensemble guidance and GFS/ECMWF model runs indicate a strong warm-air advection pattern across the Northeast, with southerly flow and limited cloud cover expected to keep New York City overnight minimums elevated through May 21. This setup positions the 68°F-or-higher bin as the market leader at 41% implied probability, as traders weigh the potential for radiative cooling to be suppressed under high pressure. Historical climatology for late May shows Central Park lows averaging near 55°F, yet recent model consensus has shifted upward, reducing the appeal of cooler bins like 49°F or below (25%). Updated short-range forecasts and surface observations over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of the measurement window.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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