The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s April 2026 decision to hold the official cash rate steady at 2.25 percent amid elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions continues to anchor trader expectations for the May 27 meeting. With near-term inflation pressures rising but medium-term inflation expectations remaining contained around the 2 percent midpoint, market-implied odds favor no change as the Monetary Policy Committee prioritizes monitoring wage growth and core measures before any normalization. Recent survey data showing one-year-ahead OCR expectations lifting to 3.01 percent reflect gradual hawkish tilt, yet current pricing of an 86 percent probability of stasis highlights the committee’s stated readiness to act only on persistent generalized inflation rather than transitory shocks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoReserve Bank of New Zealand decision in May?
Reserve Bank of New Zealand decision in May?
No Change 86%
Increase 15%
Decrease <1%
$30,488 Vol.
$30,488 Vol.
27 may 2026
Increase
15%
No Change
86%
Decrease
<1%
No Change 86%
Increase 15%
Decrease <1%
$30,488 Vol.
$30,488 Vol.
27 may 2026
Increase
$10,210 Vol.
15%
No Change
$9,756 Vol.
86%
Decrease
$10,522 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s May monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its May 27, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy]
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their May 27, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s April 2026 decision to hold the official cash rate steady at 2.25 percent amid elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions continues to anchor trader expectations for the May 27 meeting. With near-term inflation pressures rising but medium-term inflation expectations remaining contained around the 2 percent midpoint, market-implied odds favor no change as the Monetary Policy Committee prioritizes monitoring wage growth and core measures before any normalization. Recent survey data showing one-year-ahead OCR expectations lifting to 3.01 percent reflect gradual hawkish tilt, yet current pricing of an 86 percent probability of stasis highlights the committee’s stated readiness to act only on persistent generalized inflation rather than transitory shocks.
This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s May monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its May 27, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy]
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their May 27, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its May 27, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy]
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their May 27, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Mercado abierto: Feb 17, 2026, 5:52 PM ET
Volumen
$30,488Fecha de finalización
27 may 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 17, 2026, 5:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s May monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its May 27, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy]
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their May 27, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s April 2026 decision to hold the official cash rate steady at 2.25 percent amid elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions continues to anchor trader expectations for the May 27 meeting. With near-term inflation pressures rising but medium-term inflation expectations remaining contained around the 2 percent midpoint, market-implied odds favor no change as the Monetary Policy Committee prioritizes monitoring wage growth and core measures before any normalization. Recent survey data showing one-year-ahead OCR expectations lifting to 3.01 percent reflect gradual hawkish tilt, yet current pricing of an 86 percent probability of stasis highlights the committee’s stated readiness to act only on persistent generalized inflation rather than transitory shocks.
This market will resolve according to the change in the official cash rate (OCR) resulting from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s May monetary policy decision, relative to the level it was prior to this decision.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its May 27, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy]
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their May 27, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand after its May 27, 2026 monetary policy decision, as listed on the official Reserve Bank of New Zealand monetary policy schedule: https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news-and-events/events#sort=%40eventstart%20ascending&f:@hierarchicalz95xsz120xatopictagnames=[Monetary%20policy]
This market may resolve as soon as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's media release for their May 27, 2026 decision with relevant data is issued. If no decision on the official cash rate is issued by the date of the next scheduled monetary policy decision, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volumen
$30,488Fecha de finalización
27 may 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 17, 2026, 5:52 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s April 2026 decision to hold the official cash rate steady at 2.25 percent amid elevated oil prices from Middle East tensions continues to anchor trader expectations for the May 27 meeting. With near-term inflation pressures rising but medium-term inflation expectations remaining contained around the 2 percent midpoint, market-implied odds favor no change as the Monetary Policy Committee prioritizes monitoring wage growth and core measures before any normalization. Recent survey data showing one-year-ahead OCR expectations lifting to 3.01 percent reflect gradual hawkish tilt, yet current pricing of an 86 percent probability of stasis highlights the committee’s stated readiness to act only on persistent generalized inflation rather than transitory shocks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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