**The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) May 28, 2026 decision to raise the repo rate 25 basis points to 7%—its first hike since 2023—anchors current trader pricing for the July 23 meeting.** April CPI accelerated sharply to 4.0% year-over-year from 3.1% in March, driven primarily by a record jump in fuel inflation linked to Middle East tensions and higher global oil prices, alongside rising services and core inflation pressures. The MPC highlighted upside risks to the 3% inflation target (with a ±1 pp band), potential second-round effects, and revised its forecasts to show headline inflation averaging 4.4% for 2026 before converging toward target only in 2028. This hawkish shift, supported by four of six MPC members, has elevated market-implied odds for another 25 bps hike to 61%, reflecting trader consensus that the central bank will act pre-emptively to anchor expectations amid sticky energy costs. No change trails at 29%, while larger moves or cuts remain lower-probability tails given the recent tightening and data trajectory. The May CPI release on June 17 will serve as the key near-term catalyst, with any further upside surprises likely reinforcing the case for additional policy tightening before year-end. Persistent high unemployment (32.7%) and modest Q1 GDP growth provide some counterbalance but have not offset inflation concerns in recent communications.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSouth African Reserve Bank decision in July?
South African Reserve Bank decision in July?
50+ bps hike 80%
50+ bps cut 70%
25 bps hike 66%
No Change 30%
NUEVO
NUEVO
23 jul 2026
50+ bps cut
70%
25 bps cut
4%
No Change
30%
25 bps hike
66%
50+ bps hike
80%
50+ bps hike 80%
50+ bps cut 70%
25 bps hike 66%
No Change 30%
NUEVO
NUEVO
23 jul 2026
50+ bps cut
$43 Vol.
70%
25 bps cut
$171 Vol.
4%
No Change
$666 Vol.
30%
25 bps hike
$558 Vol.
66%
50+ bps hike
$53 Vol.
80%
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the repo rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 23, 2026, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank calendar (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar).
This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Hike" or "Cut" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) May 28, 2026 decision to raise the repo rate 25 basis points to 7%—its first hike since 2023—anchors current trader pricing for the July 23 meeting.** April CPI accelerated sharply to 4.0% year-over-year from 3.1% in March, driven primarily by a record jump in fuel inflation linked to Middle East tensions and higher global oil prices, alongside rising services and core inflation pressures. The MPC highlighted upside risks to the 3% inflation target (with a ±1 pp band), potential second-round effects, and revised its forecasts to show headline inflation averaging 4.4% for 2026 before converging toward target only in 2028.
This hawkish shift, supported by four of six MPC members, has elevated market-implied odds for another 25 bps hike to 61%, reflecting trader consensus that the central bank will act pre-emptively to anchor expectations amid sticky energy costs. No change trails at 29%, while larger moves or cuts remain lower-probability tails given the recent tightening and data trajectory. The May CPI release on June 17 will serve as the key near-term catalyst, with any further upside surprises likely reinforcing the case for additional policy tightening before year-end. Persistent high unemployment (32.7%) and modest Q1 GDP growth provide some counterbalance but have not offset inflation concerns in recent communications.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the repo rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 23, 2026, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank calendar (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar).
This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Hike" or "Cut" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 23, 2026, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank calendar (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar).
This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Hike" or "Cut" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Mercado abierto: May 28, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
Volumen
$1,491Fecha de finalización
23 jul 2026Mercado abierto
May 28, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the repo rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 23, 2026, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank calendar (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar).
This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Hike" or "Cut" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.**The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) May 28, 2026 decision to raise the repo rate 25 basis points to 7%—its first hike since 2023—anchors current trader pricing for the July 23 meeting.** April CPI accelerated sharply to 4.0% year-over-year from 3.1% in March, driven primarily by a record jump in fuel inflation linked to Middle East tensions and higher global oil prices, alongside rising services and core inflation pressures. The MPC highlighted upside risks to the 3% inflation target (with a ±1 pp band), potential second-round effects, and revised its forecasts to show headline inflation averaging 4.4% for 2026 before converging toward target only in 2028.
This hawkish shift, supported by four of six MPC members, has elevated market-implied odds for another 25 bps hike to 61%, reflecting trader consensus that the central bank will act pre-emptively to anchor expectations amid sticky energy costs. No change trails at 29%, while larger moves or cuts remain lower-probability tails given the recent tightening and data trajectory. The May CPI release on June 17 will serve as the key near-term catalyst, with any further upside surprises likely reinforcing the case for additional policy tightening before year-end. Persistent high unemployment (32.7%) and modest Q1 GDP growth provide some counterbalance but have not offset inflation concerns in recent communications.
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the repo rate resulting from the July 2026 meeting of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting.
The resolution source will be official information from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 23, 2026, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank calendar (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar).
This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Hike" or "Cut" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
The resolution source will be official information from the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee, including the statement or release from its July 2026 meeting, scheduled for July 23, 2026, as listed on the official South African Reserve Bank calendar (https://www.resbank.co.za/en/home/calendar).
This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the South African Reserve Bank's Monetary Policy Committee resulting from its July 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued.
If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound.
If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Hike" or "Cut" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size.
If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting.
If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Volumen
$1,491Fecha de finalización
23 jul 2026Mercado abierto
May 28, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**The South African Reserve Bank’s (SARB) May 28, 2026 decision to raise the repo rate 25 basis points to 7%—its first hike since 2023—anchors current trader pricing for the July 23 meeting.** April CPI accelerated sharply to 4.0% year-over-year from 3.1% in March, driven primarily by a record jump in fuel inflation linked to Middle East tensions and higher global oil prices, alongside rising services and core inflation pressures. The MPC highlighted upside risks to the 3% inflation target (with a ±1 pp band), potential second-round effects, and revised its forecasts to show headline inflation averaging 4.4% for 2026 before converging toward target only in 2028. This hawkish shift, supported by four of six MPC members, has elevated market-implied odds for another 25 bps hike to 61%, reflecting trader consensus that the central bank will act pre-emptively to anchor expectations amid sticky energy costs. No change trails at 29%, while larger moves or cuts remain lower-probability tails given the recent tightening and data trajectory. The May CPI release on June 17 will serve as the key near-term catalyst, with any further upside surprises likely reinforcing the case for additional policy tightening before year-end. Persistent high unemployment (32.7%) and modest Q1 GDP growth provide some counterbalance but have not offset inflation concerns in recent communications.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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