The Bank of Russia's April 24 decision to lower its key rate by 50 basis points to 14.5 percent, marking the eighth consecutive cut, has anchored trader expectations for another reduction at the June 19 meeting amid a disinflationary trajectory. Annual inflation stood at 5.7 percent as of late April, with underlying measures holding in the 4–5 percent annualized range after excluding one-off VAT and tariff effects, while inflation expectations have eased and the ruble has stabilized near 74 to the dollar. Policymakers' baseline forecast calls for inflation to reach 4.5–5.5 percent for 2026 overall and the average key rate to settle between 14.0 and 14.5 percent, though pro-inflationary risks from fiscal spending and external conditions continue to cap aggressive easing. May CPI data and the central bank's updated guidance will serve as the next key inputs ahead of resolution.