Tucker Carlson has shown no signs of launching an immediate candidacy, keeping the probability of an announcement by June 30 near zero in trader consensus. Recent interviews, including his March comments to The Economist and April remarks on Piers Morgan, featured him dismissing a presidential bid while expressing regret over prior support for President Trump amid policy disagreements on foreign conflicts. Speculation centers on a potential 2028 Republican nomination challenge, but Carlson lacks a campaign committee, fundraising apparatus, or formal exploratory steps that would precede any short-term declaration. This positioning aligns with historical patterns where media figures weigh long-term options without rushing declarations, leaving little basis for near-term movement in the market.