The tight May 26 Republican runoff between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton has sustained heavy ad spending and negative campaigning that could either energize core supporters or suppress participation among voters disillusioned by the contest. March primary turnout reached roughly 2.2 million Republicans, yet runoffs historically draw lower participation as the field narrows and voter fatigue sets in. Recent University of Houston polling shows a statistical tie with 7 percent undecided, underscoring mobilization challenges for both campaigns ahead of early voting from May 18-22. Traders assign the highest probability to the 1.2-1.5 million range because it aligns with typical dropout rates in contested Texas Republican primaries while accounting for the race's visibility and the need for both candidates to consolidate their respective bases.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoParticipación en la segunda vuelta de las primarias republicanas del Senado de Texas
Participación en la segunda vuelta de las primarias republicanas del Senado de Texas
1.2–1.5M 26.4%
0.9–1.2M 19%
1.8–2.1M 15.9%
0.6–0.9M 11%
$89,047 Vol.
$89,047 Vol.
26 may 2026
<0,6M
3%
0.6–0.9M
11%
0.9–1.2M
19%
1.2–1.5M
35%
1.5–1.8M
10%
1.8–2.1M
16%
2,1–2,4M
2%
2.4–2.7M
1%
2,7M+
1%
1.2–1.5M 26.4%
0.9–1.2M 19%
1.8–2.1M 15.9%
0.6–0.9M 11%
$89,047 Vol.
$89,047 Vol.
26 may 2026
<0,6M
$998 Vol.
3%
0.6–0.9M
$53,297 Vol.
11%
0.9–1.2M
$1,101 Vol.
19%
1.2–1.5M
$24,788 Vol.
35%
1.5–1.8M
$576 Vol.
10%
1.8–2.1M
$1,739 Vol.
16%
2,1–2,4M
$2,047 Vol.
2%
2.4–2.7M
$2,809 Vol.
1%
2,7M+
$1,693 Vol.
1%
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.The tight May 26 Republican runoff between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton has sustained heavy ad spending and negative campaigning that could either energize core supporters or suppress participation among voters disillusioned by the contest. March primary turnout reached roughly 2.2 million Republicans, yet runoffs historically draw lower participation as the field narrows and voter fatigue sets in. Recent University of Houston polling shows a statistical tie with 7 percent undecided, underscoring mobilization challenges for both campaigns ahead of early voting from May 18-22. Traders assign the highest probability to the 1.2-1.5 million range because it aligns with typical dropout rates in contested Texas Republican primaries while accounting for the race's visibility and the need for both candidates to consolidate their respective bases.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Mercado abierto: Mar 4, 2026, 3:46 PM ET
Volumen
$89,047Fecha de finalización
26 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 4, 2026, 3:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.The tight May 26 Republican runoff between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton has sustained heavy ad spending and negative campaigning that could either energize core supporters or suppress participation among voters disillusioned by the contest. March primary turnout reached roughly 2.2 million Republicans, yet runoffs historically draw lower participation as the field narrows and voter fatigue sets in. Recent University of Houston polling shows a statistical tie with 7 percent undecided, underscoring mobilization challenges for both campaigns ahead of early voting from May 18-22. Traders assign the highest probability to the 1.2-1.5 million range because it aligns with typical dropout rates in contested Texas Republican primaries while accounting for the race's visibility and the need for both candidates to consolidate their respective bases.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes).
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Volumen
$89,047Fecha de finalización
26 may 2026Mercado abierto
Mar 4, 2026, 3:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The tight May 26 Republican runoff between incumbent Sen. John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton has sustained heavy ad spending and negative campaigning that could either energize core supporters or suppress participation among voters disillusioned by the contest. March primary turnout reached roughly 2.2 million Republicans, yet runoffs historically draw lower participation as the field narrows and voter fatigue sets in. Recent University of Houston polling shows a statistical tie with 7 percent undecided, underscoring mobilization challenges for both campaigns ahead of early voting from May 18-22. Traders assign the highest probability to the 1.2-1.5 million range because it aligns with typical dropout rates in contested Texas Republican primaries while accounting for the race's visibility and the need for both candidates to consolidate their respective bases.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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