Ken Paxton holds rally in Tyler, Texas, intensifying primary campaign

Ken Paxton surges to 63%18%

Paxton held a major rally in Tyler, energizing his base and increasing his visibility in the primary race, which contributed to a rise in his market support.

Ken Paxton rebounds after releasing new campaign strategy focusing on border security

Ken Paxton surges to 64%41%

Paxton’s refreshed messaging on border security restored voter confidence, lifting his price from 23% to 64% by April 7.

Ken Paxton’s price crashes after court rules he cannot shut down Latino voting group

Ken Paxton plunges to 23%60%

A federal judge’s decision limiting Paxton’s voter‑registration lawsuit hurt his credibility, dropping his price from 83% to 23% within days.

John Cornyn's support surges after aggressive campaign spending

John Cornyn surges to 87%61%

Cornyn's campaign and aligned super PACs heavily outspent rivals, leading to a sharp increase in his primary support, though volatility remained high due to the competitive field.

Ken Paxton's campaign ad featuring Trump airs, boosting his primary support

Ken Paxton jumps to 74%14%

Paxton's campaign began airing ads featuring video clips with Donald Trump, leveraging Trump's popularity among GOP voters to increase Paxton's support in the primary race against Cornyn and Hunt.

John Cornyn’s price spikes to 91% after surprise poll shows lead over Paxton

John Cornyn surges to 91%51%

A poll released showing Cornyn briefly ahead of Paxton caused his price to surge from 40% to 91% by March 4, before a rapid reversal as new information about Paxton’s legal standing emerged.

Texas Republican Senate primary held with Ken Paxton, John Cornyn, Wesley Hunt competing

The Texas Republican Senate primary took place with incumbent John Cornyn facing strong challenges from Ken Paxton and Wesley Hunt, reflecting the competitive nature of the race and leading to significant market volatility around this date.

Democrats Jasmine Crockett and James Talarico compete in Texas Senate primary debate

Crockett and Talarico debated in the Democratic primary, highlighting their policy differences and campaign styles, which shaped voter perceptions ahead of the March 3 primary and influenced the Democratic side of the Senate race.

Jasmine Crockett launches US Senate bid in Texas

Democratic Rep. Jasmine Crockett announced her candidacy for the U.S. Senate in Texas, raising her profile and setting up a competitive Democratic primary against James Talarico, which indirectly influenced the overall Senate race environment.

Stephen Colbert reveals CBS pulled James Talarico interview over FCC rules

Late-night host Stephen Colbert disclosed that CBS lawyers pulled an interview with Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico due to concerns about FCC equal-time rules, drawing media attention to Talarico's campaign during early voting and potentially affecting Democratic primary dynamics.

Ken Paxton’s campaign releases new Trump‑endorsed TV spot

Ken Paxton surges to 83%41%

A Trump‑endorsed advertisement aired, pushing Paxton’s price sharply upward from 42% to 83% by February 24, reflecting a surge in Trump‑aligned voter enthusiasm.

Ken Paxton issues opinion supporting exclusion of certain schools from voucher program

Paxton released a legal opinion affirming the comptroller's authority to block schools allegedly tied to terrorists or foreign adversaries from the voucher program, reinforcing his conservative credentials amid the primary race.

John Cornyn wins $10 million donation from Texas GOP donors

John Cornyn jumps to 32%6%

A large donation from state GOP donors reinforced Cornyn’s establishment support, lifting his price from 26% to 32% by January 16, 2026.

Texas Comptroller requests Paxton's opinion on excluding schools from voucher program

Texas Comptroller Kelly Hancock sought Attorney General Ken Paxton's legal opinion on excluding certain private schools from the state voucher program based on alleged ties to foreign adversaries, highlighting Paxton's influence in state policy and energizing his conservative base.

John Cornyn’s campaign releases attack ad against Paxton

John Cornyn jumps to 51%8%

The ad highlighted Paxton’s legal troubles, contributing to a price dip for Paxton from 62% to 51% and a modest rise for Cornyn from 43% to 51% by December 16.

Rep. Wesley Hunt announces Texas Senate primary bid

Wesley Hunt declared his candidacy for the Texas Republican Senate primary, positioning himself as a Trump-aligned alternative to incumbent John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton, which introduced a three-way race and affected market dynamics.

Ken Paxton appears at rally in Tyler, attacks John Cornyn

Ken Paxton jumps to 72%13%

Paxton’s rally framed Cornyn as an establishment figure, causing Paxton’s price to jump from 59% to 72% by February 1, 2026, while Cornyn’s price fell.

John Cornyn raises $30 million in Q3 fundraising

John Cornyn jumps to 34%13%

Cornyn’s fundraising surge signaled strong establishment backing, temporarily boosting his market price from 21% to 34% by September 11.

Wesley Hunt launches TV ad featuring Trump endorsement

Wesley Hunt rises to 8%3%

Hunt released a new television advertisement highlighting his support from former President Trump, raising his visibility and pushing his price up from 5% to 8% by early September.

Ken Paxton announces new investigation into non‑citizen voting claims

Ken Paxton jumps to 62%12%

Paxton filed a lawsuit targeting alleged non‑citizen ballot activity, positioning himself as a defender of election integrity and appealing to Trump‑aligned voters, which helped lift his market price from 50% to 62% by July 26.

Ken Paxton announces investigation into noncitizen voting in Texas

Ken Paxton jumps to 62%12%

Attorney General Ken Paxton announced an investigation into potential noncitizens casting ballots in Texas elections, a move that reinforced his tough stance on election integrity and boosted his support among Republican primary voters concerned about voter fraud.