Trader consensus favors below 190 Republican House seats at 26.5% following the November 3, 2026 midterms, reflecting persistent Democratic leads on the generic congressional ballot—averaging a 5-point edge in polls like Ipsos (+6) and YouGov (+5) from early May—amid a record Republican retirement wave of 36 incumbents versus 20 Democrats, opening vulnerable seats in battleground districts. From the GOP's current slim 217-seat majority, this implies net Democratic gains of 28 or more, consistent with historical midterm penalties against the president's party. Differentiators include below 190 signaling a potential wave election versus narrower 190-194 or 195-199 ranges for a minimal Democratic majority at 218 seats; consolidation could stem from generic ballot trends, recruitment in open seats, presidential approval shifts, economic conditions, or primaries in swing states, with only about 16 truly competitive races limiting volatility.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Escaños republicanos en la Cámara de Representantes después de las elecciones intermedias de 2026?
¿Escaños republicanos en la Cámara de Representantes después de las elecciones intermedias de 2026?
Menos de 190 27%
190-194 13%
200-204 11.8%
195-199 12%
$232,461 Vol.
$232,461 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Menos de 190
27%
190-194
13%
195-199
12%
200-204
12%
205-209
10%
210-214
9%
215-219
11%
220-224
9%
225-229
3%
230+
1%
Menos de 190 27%
190-194 13%
200-204 11.8%
195-199 12%
$232,461 Vol.
$232,461 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Menos de 190
$16,685 Vol.
27%
190-194
$7,870 Vol.
13%
195-199
$28,089 Vol.
12%
200-204
$22,113 Vol.
12%
205-209
$35,373 Vol.
10%
210-214
$12,804 Vol.
9%
215-219
$7,989 Vol.
11%
220-224
$53,712 Vol.
9%
225-229
$21,389 Vol.
3%
230+
$26,436 Vol.
1%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus favors below 190 Republican House seats at 26.5% following the November 3, 2026 midterms, reflecting persistent Democratic leads on the generic congressional ballot—averaging a 5-point edge in polls like Ipsos (+6) and YouGov (+5) from early May—amid a record Republican retirement wave of 36 incumbents versus 20 Democrats, opening vulnerable seats in battleground districts. From the GOP's current slim 217-seat majority, this implies net Democratic gains of 28 or more, consistent with historical midterm penalties against the president's party. Differentiators include below 190 signaling a potential wave election versus narrower 190-194 or 195-199 ranges for a minimal Democratic majority at 218 seats; consolidation could stem from generic ballot trends, recruitment in open seats, presidential approval shifts, economic conditions, or primaries in swing states, with only about 16 truly competitive races limiting volatility.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado abierto: Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ET
Volumen
$232,461Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus favors below 190 Republican House seats at 26.5% following the November 3, 2026 midterms, reflecting persistent Democratic leads on the generic congressional ballot—averaging a 5-point edge in polls like Ipsos (+6) and YouGov (+5) from early May—amid a record Republican retirement wave of 36 incumbents versus 20 Democrats, opening vulnerable seats in battleground districts. From the GOP's current slim 217-seat majority, this implies net Democratic gains of 28 or more, consistent with historical midterm penalties against the president's party. Differentiators include below 190 signaling a potential wave election versus narrower 190-194 or 195-199 ranges for a minimal Democratic majority at 218 seats; consolidation could stem from generic ballot trends, recruitment in open seats, presidential approval shifts, economic conditions, or primaries in swing states, with only about 16 truly competitive races limiting volatility.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Volumen
$232,461Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Dec 18, 2025, 8:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus favors below 190 Republican House seats at 26.5% following the November 3, 2026 midterms, reflecting persistent Democratic leads on the generic congressional ballot—averaging a 5-point edge in polls like Ipsos (+6) and YouGov (+5) from early May—amid a record Republican retirement wave of 36 incumbents versus 20 Democrats, opening vulnerable seats in battleground districts. From the GOP's current slim 217-seat majority, this implies net Democratic gains of 28 or more, consistent with historical midterm penalties against the president's party. Differentiators include below 190 signaling a potential wave election versus narrower 190-194 or 195-199 ranges for a minimal Democratic majority at 218 seats; consolidation could stem from generic ballot trends, recruitment in open seats, presidential approval shifts, economic conditions, or primaries in swing states, with only about 16 truly competitive races limiting volatility.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes