Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in Santa Catarina first-round voting intentions according to recent state-level polling, reflecting the region's longstanding conservative preferences and alignment with the Liberal Party. The state’s electorate has shown consistent support for bolsonarista candidates, reinforced by the popularity of PL Governor Jorginho Mello, who leads his own reelection bid by wide margins. National campaign dynamics, including Flávio’s formal nomination and endorsements, have translated into double-digit advantages locally, with Lula trailing significantly and other contenders such as Romeu Zema, Ronaldo Caiado, and Renan Santos registering only low single-digit shares. Recent simultaneous campaign events in the state by both major candidates underscore the regional divide. Late-breaking developments, including turnout shifts or unforeseen national events before the October 4 first round, represent the primary scenarios that could alter the outcome.