Lula, the incumbent Workers’ Party president seeking a fourth term, holds a consistent but modest lead in first-round polling aggregates near 38–41 percent, with Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party trailing in the low-to-mid 30s amid a fragmented opposition field that includes rising support for Augusto Cury and Renan Santos. Recent surveys from Datafolha, MDA/CNT, Quaest, and AtlasIntel show the gap narrowing slightly in September, reflecting stable economic perceptions, campaign momentum on both sides, and the impact of an ongoing Supreme Court institutional dispute. With the October 4 first round approaching, traders price the 41–44 percent and 44 percent-plus brackets highest, underscoring uncertainty over undecided voters, turnout among key blocs, and whether late shifts or minor-candidate consolidation can push Lula’s share higher or keep it contained.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado44%+ 42%
41-44% 39%
38-41% 14%
<35% 4.9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 oct 2026
<35%
5%
35-38%
5%
38-41%
14%
41-44%
39%
44%+
42%
44%+ 42%
41-44% 39%
38-41% 14%
<35% 4.9%
NUEVO
NUEVO
4 oct 2026
<35%
$353 Vol.
5%
35-38%
$348 Vol.
5%
38-41%
$727 Vol.
14%
41-44%
$1,016 Vol.
39%
44%+
$1,231 Vol.
42%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula, the incumbent Workers’ Party president seeking a fourth term, holds a consistent but modest lead in first-round polling aggregates near 38–41 percent, with Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party trailing in the low-to-mid 30s amid a fragmented opposition field that includes rising support for Augusto Cury and Renan Santos. Recent surveys from Datafolha, MDA/CNT, Quaest, and AtlasIntel show the gap narrowing slightly in September, reflecting stable economic perceptions, campaign momentum on both sides, and the impact of an ongoing Supreme Court institutional dispute. With the October 4 first round approaching, traders price the 41–44 percent and 44 percent-plus brackets highest, underscoring uncertainty over undecided voters, turnout among key blocs, and whether late shifts or minor-candidate consolidation can push Lula’s share higher or keep it contained.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Mercado abierto: Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ET
Volumen
$3,676Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula, the incumbent Workers’ Party president seeking a fourth term, holds a consistent but modest lead in first-round polling aggregates near 38–41 percent, with Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party trailing in the low-to-mid 30s amid a fragmented opposition field that includes rising support for Augusto Cury and Renan Santos. Recent surveys from Datafolha, MDA/CNT, Quaest, and AtlasIntel show the gap narrowing slightly in September, reflecting stable economic perceptions, campaign momentum on both sides, and the impact of an ongoing Supreme Court institutional dispute. With the October 4 first round approaching, traders price the 41–44 percent and 44 percent-plus brackets highest, underscoring uncertainty over undecided voters, turnout among key blocs, and whether late shifts or minor-candidate consolidation can push Lula’s share higher or keep it contained.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.
The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Volumen
$3,676Fecha de finalización
5 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Lula, the incumbent Workers’ Party president seeking a fourth term, holds a consistent but modest lead in first-round polling aggregates near 38–41 percent, with Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party trailing in the low-to-mid 30s amid a fragmented opposition field that includes rising support for Augusto Cury and Renan Santos. Recent surveys from Datafolha, MDA/CNT, Quaest, and AtlasIntel show the gap narrowing slightly in September, reflecting stable economic perceptions, campaign momentum on both sides, and the impact of an ongoing Supreme Court institutional dispute. With the October 4 first round approaching, traders price the 41–44 percent and 44 percent-plus brackets highest, underscoring uncertainty over undecided voters, turnout among key blocs, and whether late shifts or minor-candidate consolidation can push Lula’s share higher or keep it contained.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿Obtendrá Flávio Bolsonaro el 39% o más de los votos válidos en la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales brasileñas de 2026?
70%
Sí
¿Renan Santos obtendrá entre el 2% y el 4% de los votos válidos en la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales brasileñas de 2026?
35%
Sí
¿Augusto Cury obtendrá el 6% o más de los votos válidos en la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales brasileñas de 2026?
41%
Sí
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes