The closely matched probabilities among leading outcomes reflect a competitive 2026 midterm environment, where Republicans defend narrow majorities in both chambers against historical midterm headwinds for the president's party. Senate dynamics center on a map with 35 seats contested, including several Democratic-leaning targets that could allow flips of three to five seats, while House results hinge on competitive districts and national conditions that typically produce 10- to 30-seat swings. Traders weigh polling averages, primary results, and economic indicators alongside the possibility of late shifts from campaign events or turnout patterns. Upcoming developments such as candidate filings, debate cycles, and final voter mobilization efforts before November could widen or narrow the range of plausible seat totals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado47–49 y 193–207 18.6%
50–52 y 208–222 15.0%
≤46 y ≤192 13.5%
50–52 y 193–207 10.3%
$24,092 Vol.
$24,092 Vol.
3 nov 2026
≥53 y ≥223
6%
≥53 y 208–222
6%
≥53 y ≤207
4%
50–52 y ≥223
7%
50–52 y 208–222
15%
50–52 y 193–207
10%
50–52 y ≤192
3%
47–49 y ≥208
5%
47–49 y 193–207
19%
47–49 y ≤192
7%
≤46 y ≥208
2%
≤46 y 193–207
5%
≤46 y ≤192
14%
47–49 y 193–207 18.6%
50–52 y 208–222 15.0%
≤46 y ≤192 13.5%
50–52 y 193–207 10.3%
$24,092 Vol.
$24,092 Vol.
3 nov 2026
≥53 y ≥223
$372 Vol.
6%
≥53 y 208–222
$2,184 Vol.
6%
≥53 y ≤207
$533 Vol.
4%
50–52 y ≥223
$424 Vol.
7%
50–52 y 208–222
$5,940 Vol.
15%
50–52 y 193–207
$5,822 Vol.
10%
50–52 y ≤192
$1,644 Vol.
3%
47–49 y ≥208
$1,019 Vol.
5%
47–49 y 193–207
$1,038 Vol.
19%
47–49 y ≤192
$1,999 Vol.
7%
≤46 y ≥208
$420 Vol.
2%
≤46 y 193–207
$738 Vol.
5%
≤46 y ≤192
$1,960 Vol.
14%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of the Republican Party’s seat count in the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. The House seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.
Senate and House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.The closely matched probabilities among leading outcomes reflect a competitive 2026 midterm environment, where Republicans defend narrow majorities in both chambers against historical midterm headwinds for the president's party. Senate dynamics center on a map with 35 seats contested, including several Democratic-leaning targets that could allow flips of three to five seats, while House results hinge on competitive districts and national conditions that typically produce 10- to 30-seat swings. Traders weigh polling averages, primary results, and economic indicators alongside the possibility of late shifts from campaign events or turnout patterns. Upcoming developments such as candidate filings, debate cycles, and final voter mobilization efforts before November could widen or narrow the range of plausible seat totals.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of the Republican Party’s seat count in the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. The House seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.
Senate and House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of the Republican Party’s seat count in the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. The House seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.
Senate and House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jun 25, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
Volumen
$24,092Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 25, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of the Republican Party’s seat count in the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. The House seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.
Senate and House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.The closely matched probabilities among leading outcomes reflect a competitive 2026 midterm environment, where Republicans defend narrow majorities in both chambers against historical midterm headwinds for the president's party. Senate dynamics center on a map with 35 seats contested, including several Democratic-leaning targets that could allow flips of three to five seats, while House results hinge on competitive districts and national conditions that typically produce 10- to 30-seat swings. Traders weigh polling averages, primary results, and economic indicators alongside the possibility of late shifts from campaign events or turnout patterns. Upcoming developments such as candidate filings, debate cycles, and final voter mobilization efforts before November could widen or narrow the range of plausible seat totals.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of the Republican Party’s seat count in the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. The House seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.
Senate and House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of the Republican Party’s seat count in the US House of Representatives and the US Senate as a result of the 2026 midterm elections.
The Senate seat count includes all regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. Vacant Senate seats for which no election or special election to fill the seat is scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 will be treated as held by the party affiliation of the most recent member to hold that seat. The House seat count includes all House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress. Where a Senate or House seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat, even if it takes place after November 2026.
For seats contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was elected.
For seats not contested in the specified election, seats are attributed to the party that holds the seat as of the date of the election. If a current sitting member of the U.S. Senate who is not up for election changes party affiliation or vacates their seat after the date of the election, the seat is attributed to the party under which the member was affiliated at the time of the election.
Senate and House members elected as independents who formally caucus with, or, for newly elected members, who announce their intent to caucus with a party are included in that party’s count. If the caucus decisions of members of the Senate or House elected as independents cannot be determined on the date of the election, this market may remain open until the earlier of (i) an announcement from the relevant members of their intents to caucus, or (ii) January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year. If no such announcement is made by January 4th, 11:59 PM ET of the following calendar year, the member will not count towards the seat count of any party.
The resolution sources for this market will be official information from relevant state electoral authorities, the United States Congress, and a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$24,092Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 25, 2026, 1:27 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The closely matched probabilities among leading outcomes reflect a competitive 2026 midterm environment, where Republicans defend narrow majorities in both chambers against historical midterm headwinds for the president's party. Senate dynamics center on a map with 35 seats contested, including several Democratic-leaning targets that could allow flips of three to five seats, while House results hinge on competitive districts and national conditions that typically produce 10- to 30-seat swings. Traders weigh polling averages, primary results, and economic indicators alongside the possibility of late shifts from campaign events or turnout patterns. Upcoming developments such as candidate filings, debate cycles, and final voter mobilization efforts before November could widen or narrow the range of plausible seat totals.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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