Texas Republican U.S. Senate primary runoff voters will decide between incumbent John Cornyn and Attorney General Ken Paxton on May 26, with early voting underway from May 18–22, anchoring trader consensus at 97.1% against Paxton dropping out. Recent scorched-earth attack ads and fundraising tallies reflect Paxton's sustained campaign momentum, building on his March primary survival despite over $60 million in establishment opposition spending. Absent withdrawal signals or fulfillment of his prior conditional exit tied to SAVE Act passage, and with President Trump's endorsement still pending post-deadline, markets dismiss near-term exit risks. Realistic disruptors remain a strong Trump backing for Cornyn, fresh legal challenges from Paxton's ongoing AG tenure, or unforeseen health events.