Redistricting consolidated much of the former 9th Congressional District into the 18th, forcing a direct matchup between two sitting Houston Democrats after neither secured a majority in the March 3 primary. Christian Menefee, who won the special election for the seat in January, holds a clear polling edge in the May 26 runoff, recently leading Al Green by seven points among likely voters according to the University of Houston Hobby School survey. Menefee has also maintained a substantial fundraising advantage, raising over twice as much as Green in the first quarter. These factors, combined with the compressed timeline before the runoff, have solidified trader consensus around Menefee while leaving limited room for late shifts absent major unforeseen developments.