Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to UK Q1 2026 real GDP growth of 0.9-1.2% quarter-on-quarter, propelled by robust early-year monthly data from the Office for National Statistics. February 2026 saw 0.5% monthly expansion—the strongest in over two years—following January's three-month growth revised up to 0.3%, with services output surging 0.8% on household consumption (up 0.6%) and wholesale/retail strength. This momentum, amid steady Bank of England rates at 5.25% and moderating inflation, underpins the lockstep positioning ahead of today's preliminary quarterly estimate. Potential challenges include a downside surprise in the ONS print or revisions, geopolitical shocks like the Iran conflict eroding activity, or softer March indicators shifting probabilities lower.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Crecimiento del PIB del Reino Unido en el primer trimestre de 2026?
¿Crecimiento del PIB del Reino Unido en el primer trimestre de 2026?
0,9-1,2% 100.0%
Negativo <1%
0,0-0,3% <1%
0,3-0,6% <1%
$53,225 Vol.
$53,225 Vol.
14 may 2026
Negativo
No
0,0-0,3%
No
0,3-0,6%
No
0,6-0,9%
No
0,9-1,2%
Sí
1,2-1,5%
No
1,5-1,8%
No
1,8%+
No
0,9-1,2% 100.0%
Negativo <1%
0,0-0,3% <1%
0,3-0,6% <1%
$53,225 Vol.
$53,225 Vol.
14 may 2026
Negativo
$6,997 Vol.
No
0,0-0,3%
$11,247 Vol.
No
0,3-0,6%
$4,651 Vol.
No
0,6-0,9%
$16,309 Vol.
No
0,9-1,2%
$4,902 Vol.
Sí
1,2-1,5%
$3,810 Vol.
No
1,5-1,8%
$1,654 Vol.
No
1,8%+
$3,654 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to UK Q1 2026 real GDP growth of 0.9-1.2% quarter-on-quarter, propelled by robust early-year monthly data from the Office for National Statistics. February 2026 saw 0.5% monthly expansion—the strongest in over two years—following January's three-month growth revised up to 0.3%, with services output surging 0.8% on household consumption (up 0.6%) and wholesale/retail strength. This momentum, amid steady Bank of England rates at 5.25% and moderating inflation, underpins the lockstep positioning ahead of today's preliminary quarterly estimate. Potential challenges include a downside surprise in the ONS print or revisions, geopolitical shocks like the Iran conflict eroding activity, or softer March indicators shifting probabilities lower.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ET
Volumen
$53,225Fecha de finalización
14 may 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to UK Q1 2026 real GDP growth of 0.9-1.2% quarter-on-quarter, propelled by robust early-year monthly data from the Office for National Statistics. February 2026 saw 0.5% monthly expansion—the strongest in over two years—following January's three-month growth revised up to 0.3%, with services output surging 0.8% on household consumption (up 0.6%) and wholesale/retail strength. This momentum, amid steady Bank of England rates at 5.25% and moderating inflation, underpins the lockstep positioning ahead of today's preliminary quarterly estimate. Potential challenges include a downside surprise in the ONS print or revisions, geopolitical shocks like the Iran conflict eroding activity, or softer March indicators shifting probabilities lower.
This market will resolve according to the UK real gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate (% change) for Q1 of 2026 compared with the same quarter a year ago in the "GDP First quarterly estimate, UK" release for Q1 of 2026, scheduled for May 14, 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/grossdomesticproductgdp/bulletins/gdpfirstquarterlyestimateuk/previousreleases
If no data for the specified quarter is released by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volumen
$53,225Fecha de finalización
14 may 2026Mercado abierto
Feb 12, 2026, 5:33 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Polymarket's trader consensus assigns a 100% implied probability to UK Q1 2026 real GDP growth of 0.9-1.2% quarter-on-quarter, propelled by robust early-year monthly data from the Office for National Statistics. February 2026 saw 0.5% monthly expansion—the strongest in over two years—following January's three-month growth revised up to 0.3%, with services output surging 0.8% on household consumption (up 0.6%) and wholesale/retail strength. This momentum, amid steady Bank of England rates at 5.25% and moderating inflation, underpins the lockstep positioning ahead of today's preliminary quarterly estimate. Potential challenges include a downside surprise in the ONS print or revisions, geopolitical shocks like the Iran conflict eroding activity, or softer March indicators shifting probabilities lower.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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