US intelligence assessments from early 2026 indicate that Chinese leaders lack a fixed timeline or active operational plans for military action against Taiwan, supporting traders' 92.5 percent implied probability against an invasion by year-end. Taiwan's approval of expanded defense funding and plans to forward-deploy HIMARS systems on outlying islands for precision strikes on potential amphibious staging areas have strengthened asymmetric deterrence. Routine People's Liberation Army activities in the Taiwan Strait remain at subdued levels, with fewer air incursions and no surge in naval deployments through mid-May. Ongoing diplomatic channels, including preparations for bilateral talks with Washington and engagement with Taiwanese opposition parties, further signal Beijing's preference for non-kinetic pressure. These factors align with the wisdom of crowds in pricing low near-term risk, though abrupt shifts in cross-strait posture or regional incidents could still alter assessments.