SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on April 1, 2026, targeting a historic $1.75 trillion valuation and up to $75 billion raise, has driven near-unanimous trader consensus at 98.2% implied probability of it IPOing before OpenAI, reflecting aggregated skin-in-the-game sentiment on Polymarket. Recent reports confirm SpaceX's public prospectus is imminent—potentially this week—with roadshows starting June 8 and Nasdaq listing eyed for summer, bolstered by Starlink revenue growth and Starship milestones. OpenAI lags without filings, as CFO Sarah Friar reportedly views a 2026 debut as aggressive amid missed revenue targets, soaring AI compute costs exceeding $600 billion in commitments, and governance scrutiny. Realistic wildcards include SEC review delays, SpaceX regulatory hurdles on orbital launches, or unexpected OpenAI acceleration, though the latter faces steep barriers given competitive pressures from Anthropic and Alphabet.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSpaceX
$73,263 Vol.
$73,263 Vol.
31 dic 2027
SpaceX
$73,263 Vol.
$73,263 Vol.
31 dic 2027
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on April 1, 2026, targeting a historic $1.75 trillion valuation and up to $75 billion raise, has driven near-unanimous trader consensus at 98.2% implied probability of it IPOing before OpenAI, reflecting aggregated skin-in-the-game sentiment on Polymarket. Recent reports confirm SpaceX's public prospectus is imminent—potentially this week—with roadshows starting June 8 and Nasdaq listing eyed for summer, bolstered by Starlink revenue growth and Starship milestones. OpenAI lags without filings, as CFO Sarah Friar reportedly views a 2026 debut as aggressive amid missed revenue targets, soaring AI compute costs exceeding $600 billion in commitments, and governance scrutiny. Realistic wildcards include SEC review delays, SpaceX regulatory hurdles on orbital launches, or unexpected OpenAI acceleration, though the latter faces steep barriers given competitive pressures from Anthropic and Alphabet.
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ET
Volumen
$73,263Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on April 1, 2026, targeting a historic $1.75 trillion valuation and up to $75 billion raise, has driven near-unanimous trader consensus at 98.2% implied probability of it IPOing before OpenAI, reflecting aggregated skin-in-the-game sentiment on Polymarket. Recent reports confirm SpaceX's public prospectus is imminent—potentially this week—with roadshows starting June 8 and Nasdaq listing eyed for summer, bolstered by Starlink revenue growth and Starship milestones. OpenAI lags without filings, as CFO Sarah Friar reportedly views a 2026 debut as aggressive amid missed revenue targets, soaring AI compute costs exceeding $600 billion in commitments, and governance scrutiny. Realistic wildcards include SEC review delays, SpaceX regulatory hurdles on orbital launches, or unexpected OpenAI acceleration, though the latter faces steep barriers given competitive pressures from Anthropic and Alphabet.
This market will resolve to "SpaceX" if SpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before OpenAI completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "OpenAI" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) before SpaceX completes an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources.
This market will resolve 50-50 if:
- Neither SpaceX nor OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET;
- Both SpaceX and OpenAI complete an IPO on the same calendar date (ET); or
- By December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, both companies become unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded.
The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.
The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$73,263Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2027Mercado abierto
Jan 30, 2026, 3:06 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...SpaceX's confidential S-1 filing with the SEC on April 1, 2026, targeting a historic $1.75 trillion valuation and up to $75 billion raise, has driven near-unanimous trader consensus at 98.2% implied probability of it IPOing before OpenAI, reflecting aggregated skin-in-the-game sentiment on Polymarket. Recent reports confirm SpaceX's public prospectus is imminent—potentially this week—with roadshows starting June 8 and Nasdaq listing eyed for summer, bolstered by Starlink revenue growth and Starship milestones. OpenAI lags without filings, as CFO Sarah Friar reportedly views a 2026 debut as aggressive amid missed revenue targets, soaring AI compute costs exceeding $600 billion in commitments, and governance scrutiny. Realistic wildcards include SEC review delays, SpaceX regulatory hurdles on orbital launches, or unexpected OpenAI acceleration, though the latter faces steep barriers given competitive pressures from Anthropic and Alphabet.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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