**Strong pre-release tracking, record-breaking early sales, and sustained franchise momentum have driven traders to assign a 76.5% implied probability that Spider-Man: Brand New Day will surpass Avengers: Endgame’s $357 million domestic opening weekend record.** The film’s July 31, 2026 release generated immediate heat, with $72 million in domestic previews shattering Endgame’s prior benchmark and first-day estimates reaching $167 million-plus in the U.S. Box-office analysts now project a domestic debut in the $280–300 million range (with some upside toward or above $300 million), fueled by 91% Rotten Tomatoes scores, robust exhibitor presales exceeding Deadpool & Wolverine and Spider-Man: No Way Home, and Tom Holland’s proven draw. International markets are also pacing for $275–300 million, supporting a global opening near or above $800 million. Key catalysts include minimal competition during the frame, escalating industry forecasts in the final week, and the absence of superhero fatigue for this title. While reaching Endgame’s exact domestic mark remains ambitious, current data and trader capital have shifted consensus toward the “Yes” outcome ahead of final weekend tallies.