Heightened U.S. sanctions targeting Cuba’s military and regime elites, combined with increased surveillance flights and Pentagon contingency planning, have fueled diplomatic friction under the Trump administration. However, senior U.S. officials stated in early May that no imminent military action is planned, while recent high-level talks—including CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s visit to Havana—signal ongoing negotiations over economic reforms and security issues. Cuba has responded with military drills and red-line warnings, yet the absence of troop mobilization, congressional authorization, or large-scale deployments keeps the focus on sanctions and legal pressure, such as the reported move to indict Raúl Castro. Traders interpret these developments as evidence that diplomatic and economic tools remain the preferred approach through 2026.