Recent official forecasts from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and multi-model ensembles show El Niño rapidly intensifying, with weekly Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.1°C and reaching the +2.5°C threshold associated with very strong events. Atmospheric coupling, including strongly negative Southern Oscillation Index values and westerly wind anomalies, reinforces the oceanic warming, while record-warm subsurface heat content provides additional fuel for further growth. NOAA assigns an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño during October–December 2026 that would rank among the largest since 1950, with 97% odds the event persists into early 2027. These data and model consensus explain traders’ elevated confidence that the 2026–27 winter qualifies as a Super El Niño.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Habrá un Super El Niño este invierno (2026–27)?
¿Habrá un Super El Niño este invierno (2026–27)?
Sí
89% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 abr 2027
Sí
89% probabilidad
NUEVO
NUEVO
1 abr 2027
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Recent official forecasts from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and multi-model ensembles show El Niño rapidly intensifying, with weekly Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.1°C and reaching the +2.5°C threshold associated with very strong events. Atmospheric coupling, including strongly negative Southern Oscillation Index values and westerly wind anomalies, reinforces the oceanic warming, while record-warm subsurface heat content provides additional fuel for further growth. NOAA assigns an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño during October–December 2026 that would rank among the largest since 1950, with 97% odds the event persists into early 2027. These data and model consensus explain traders’ elevated confidence that the 2026–27 winter qualifies as a Super El Niño.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Mercado abierto: Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
Volumen
$4,803Fecha de finalización
1 abr 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.Recent official forecasts from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and multi-model ensembles show El Niño rapidly intensifying, with weekly Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.1°C and reaching the +2.5°C threshold associated with very strong events. Atmospheric coupling, including strongly negative Southern Oscillation Index values and westerly wind anomalies, reinforces the oceanic warming, while record-warm subsurface heat content provides additional fuel for further growth. NOAA assigns an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño during October–December 2026 that would rank among the largest since 1950, with 97% odds the event persists into early 2027. These data and model consensus explain traders’ elevated confidence that the 2026–27 winter qualifies as a Super El Niño.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Regional Ocean Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Volumen
$4,803Fecha de finalización
1 abr 2027Mercado abierto
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent official forecasts from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center and multi-model ensembles show El Niño rapidly intensifying, with weekly Niño 3.4 sea-surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2.1°C and reaching the +2.5°C threshold associated with very strong events. Atmospheric coupling, including strongly negative Southern Oscillation Index values and westerly wind anomalies, reinforces the oceanic warming, while record-warm subsurface heat content provides additional fuel for further growth. NOAA assigns an 81% chance of a very strong El Niño during October–December 2026 that would rank among the largest since 1950, with 97% odds the event persists into early 2027. These data and model consensus explain traders’ elevated confidence that the 2026–27 winter qualifies as a Super El Niño.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes