Trader consensus prices France at an 18.1% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, narrowly ahead of Spain's 16.4% and England's 11.5%, underscoring a tightly contested race among Europe's elite amid South American challengers like Brazil (9.2%) and defending champions Argentina (8.6%). With qualifiers wrapping in late March—Argentina topping CONMEBOL ahead of a stumbling Brazil, while France, Spain, England, and Portugal dominated UEFA groups—the market weighs recent March friendlies, including France's 2-1 win over Brazil and 3-1 over Colombia, alongside squad announcements featuring Mbappé, Yamal, Bellingham, Vinícius Júnior, and aging stars Messi and Ronaldo. The expanded 48-team format, finalized group draw, and potential knockout upsets in a North American-hosted tournament amplify uncertainty, balancing firepower, depth, and paths to the final.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFrance 17.9%
Spain 16.4%
England 11.5%
Brazil 9.2%
$970,758,241 Vol.
$970,758,241 Vol.
France
18%
Spain
16%
England
11%
Brazil
9%
Argentina
9%
Portugal
8%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
2%
Japan
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Switzerland
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Turkiye
1%
Austria
1%
Sweden
1%
Canada
<1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Czechia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
France 17.9%
Spain 16.4%
England 11.5%
Brazil 9.2%
$970,758,241 Vol.
$970,758,241 Vol.
France
18%
Spain
16%
England
11%
Brazil
9%
Argentina
9%
Portugal
8%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
2%
Japan
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Switzerland
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Turkiye
1%
Austria
1%
Sweden
1%
Canada
<1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Czechia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices France at an 18.1% implied probability to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, narrowly ahead of Spain's 16.4% and England's 11.5%, underscoring a tightly contested race among Europe's elite amid South American challengers like Brazil (9.2%) and defending champions Argentina (8.6%). With qualifiers wrapping in late March—Argentina topping CONMEBOL ahead of a stumbling Brazil, while France, Spain, England, and Portugal dominated UEFA groups—the market weighs recent March friendlies, including France's 2-1 win over Brazil and 3-1 over Colombia, alongside squad announcements featuring Mbappé, Yamal, Bellingham, Vinícius Júnior, and aging stars Messi and Ronaldo. The expanded 48-team format, finalized group draw, and potential knockout upsets in a North American-hosted tournament amplify uncertainty, balancing firepower, depth, and paths to the final.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions