The tight clustering of implied probabilities around France at 18.3 percent, Spain at 16.7 percent, and England at 11.3 percent reflects the deep squad quality and recent form among leading European sides heading into the expanded 48-team field. France has climbed to the top of the FIFA rankings after key March results, while Spain carries momentum from its European Championship success and a talented core featuring Lamine Yamal. England maintains strong positioning following consecutive major-tournament final appearances and a flawless qualifying campaign. Brazil and Argentina trail slightly due to reliance on aging stars amid tougher group-stage paths, with the overall market pricing in the inherent unpredictability of knockout stages and potential late injuries across the field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFrance 18.3%
Spain 16.7%
England 11.3%
Brazil 9.2%
$1,014,154,531 Vol.
$1,014,154,531 Vol.
France
18%
Spain
17%
England
11%
Brazil
9%
Argentina
8%
Portugal
8%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
2%
Japan
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Switzerland
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Turkiye
1%
Austria
1%
Sweden
1%
Canada
<1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Czechia
<1%
Australia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
France 18.3%
Spain 16.7%
England 11.3%
Brazil 9.2%
$1,014,154,531 Vol.
$1,014,154,531 Vol.
France
18%
Spain
17%
England
11%
Brazil
9%
Argentina
8%
Portugal
8%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
2%
Japan
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Switzerland
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Turkiye
1%
Austria
1%
Sweden
1%
Canada
<1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Czechia
<1%
Australia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The tight clustering of implied probabilities around France at 18.3 percent, Spain at 16.7 percent, and England at 11.3 percent reflects the deep squad quality and recent form among leading European sides heading into the expanded 48-team field. France has climbed to the top of the FIFA rankings after key March results, while Spain carries momentum from its European Championship success and a talented core featuring Lamine Yamal. England maintains strong positioning following consecutive major-tournament final appearances and a flawless qualifying campaign. Brazil and Argentina trail slightly due to reliance on aging stars amid tougher group-stage paths, with the overall market pricing in the inherent unpredictability of knockout stages and potential late injuries across the field.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions