The tightly bunched probabilities for France, Spain, England, Brazil, and Argentina reflect the deep squad depth and recent international pedigree among these sides as they finalize 26-man rosters just weeks before the expanded 48-team tournament opens on June 11. Spain’s current European Championship-winning form and tactical cohesion under Luis de la Fuente position them near the top, while France’s blend of experience and athleticism continues to draw strong trader support despite a transitional phase for Didier Deschamps. England and defending champions Argentina benefit from consistent qualifying campaigns and star-laden lineups, with recent power rankings underscoring how evenly matched the elite group remains heading into group-stage matchups across North America.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFrance 18.6%
Spain 16.7%
England 11.3%
Brazil 9.2%
$1,010,642,601 Vol.
$1,010,642,601 Vol.
France
19%
Spain
17%
England
11%
Brazil
9%
Argentina
9%
Portugal
8%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
2%
Japan
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Switzerland
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Turkiye
1%
Austria
1%
Sweden
1%
Canada
<1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Czechia
<1%
Australia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
France 18.6%
Spain 16.7%
England 11.3%
Brazil 9.2%
$1,010,642,601 Vol.
$1,010,642,601 Vol.
France
19%
Spain
17%
England
11%
Brazil
9%
Argentina
9%
Portugal
8%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
2%
Japan
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Switzerland
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Turkiye
1%
Austria
1%
Sweden
1%
Canada
<1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Czechia
<1%
Australia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...The tightly bunched probabilities for France, Spain, England, Brazil, and Argentina reflect the deep squad depth and recent international pedigree among these sides as they finalize 26-man rosters just weeks before the expanded 48-team tournament opens on June 11. Spain’s current European Championship-winning form and tactical cohesion under Luis de la Fuente position them near the top, while France’s blend of experience and athleticism continues to draw strong trader support despite a transitional phase for Didier Deschamps. England and defending champions Argentina benefit from consistent qualifying campaigns and star-laden lineups, with recent power rankings underscoring how evenly matched the elite group remains heading into group-stage matchups across North America.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions