France leads trader consensus at 17.9% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by Kylian Mbappé's prolific club form and a 2-1 friendly win over Brazil in late March, showcasing defensive resilience despite Hugo Ekitike's injury absence. Spain trails closely at 16.4%, reflecting Lamine Yamal's breakout season and seamless qualification atop their UEFA group, with young talents offsetting any depth concerns. England (11.5%), Brazil (9.2%), and Argentina (8.6%) remain competitive amid the expanded 48-team format and favorable group draws—Argentina in a winnable Group J—while Brazil's odds dipped on hamstring injuries to Rodrygo and Estêvão. Parity stems from elite squads' knockout pedigree, rest advantages post-club seasons, and uncertainties like aging stars and potential upsets in the group stage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedFrance 17.9%
Spain 16.4%
England 11.5%
Brazil 9.2%
$971,674,791 Vol.
$971,674,791 Vol.
France
18%
Spain
16%
England
11%
Brazil
9%
Argentina
9%
Portugal
8%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
2%
Japan
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Switzerland
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Turkiye
1%
Austria
1%
Sweden
1%
Canada
<1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Czechia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
France 17.9%
Spain 16.4%
England 11.5%
Brazil 9.2%
$971,674,791 Vol.
$971,674,791 Vol.
France
18%
Spain
16%
England
11%
Brazil
9%
Argentina
9%
Portugal
8%
Germany
5%
Netherlands
3%
Norway
2%
Japan
2%
Belgium
2%
Colombia
2%
USA
2%
Morocco
2%
Switzerland
1%
Uruguay
1%
Mexico
1%
Croatia
1%
Ecuador
1%
Senegal
1%
Turkiye
1%
Austria
1%
Sweden
1%
Canada
<1%
South Korea
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Scotland
<1%
Ivory Coast
<1%
Czechia
<1%
Egypt
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algeria
<1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina
<1%
Tunisia
<1%
Australia
<1%
New Zealand
<1%
Haiti
<1%
Jordan
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Uzbekistan
<1%
Panama
<1%
Iraq
<1%
South Africa
<1%
Congo DR
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Saudi Arabia
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...France leads trader consensus at 17.9% implied probability for the 2026 FIFA World Cup, buoyed by Kylian Mbappé's prolific club form and a 2-1 friendly win over Brazil in late March, showcasing defensive resilience despite Hugo Ekitike's injury absence. Spain trails closely at 16.4%, reflecting Lamine Yamal's breakout season and seamless qualification atop their UEFA group, with young talents offsetting any depth concerns. England (11.5%), Brazil (9.2%), and Argentina (8.6%) remain competitive amid the expanded 48-team format and favorable group draws—Argentina in a winnable Group J—while Brazil's odds dipped on hamstring injuries to Rodrygo and Estêvão. Parity stems from elite squads' knockout pedigree, rest advantages post-club seasons, and uncertainties like aging stars and potential upsets in the group stage.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions