Ongoing congressional scrutiny and a Senate contempt referral against Anthony Fauci remain under DOJ review without resulting charges, while a preemptive Biden pardon covering 2014–2025 creates legal uncertainty that the Trump administration has not yet tested in court. Aides such as David Morens faced indictments for record concealment, but no equivalent federal case has advanced against Fauci, and statute-of-limitation concerns further constrain prospects before year-end. Florida’s separate state investigation adds another track yet lacks jurisdiction over core federal matters. Traders assign an 81% probability to “No” because these procedural, pardon-related, and evidentiary barriers have prevented formal charges despite sustained Republican pressure and public hearings through mid-2026.