The Bank of Israel’s established easing bias, supported by staff forecasts projecting 2026 inflation between 1.7 and 2.2 percent within the lower half of the 1–3 percent target range, is the primary driver behind the 74.0 percent market-implied probability of a rate cut at the May 25 decision. After two 25-basis-point reductions that brought the benchmark to 4.00 percent early in the year, the March hold reflected a temporary pause amid energy-price pressures and renewed geopolitical tensions; subsequent stabilization, including recent ceasefire developments, has allowed one-year inflation expectations to settle near 1.5–2.0 percent. With April CPI data due shortly and the Monetary Committee’s updated growth outlook favoring gradual easing toward a 3.5 percent base case, traders price in a high likelihood that subdued price pressures will prompt resumption of the rate path ahead of the July meeting.